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TOV Forums > Today's Reading Links > > Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless

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KaizenDo
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European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-13-2018 20:02
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Carmakers forced to accelerate green plans

New European CO2 emissions targets to transform industry and drive electric car use


Up to now, the EU had the lowest CO2 emission targets by 2020 with 95g CO2/km. In a recent move, the EU parliament has decided to demand further reduction of car CO2 emissions by another 35% till 2030 - which would mean 61.75g/km and not only as lab-value of the NEDC, but instead of the more stringent WLTC.

These demands are completely bollocks and came from people without any sense of reality or technical understanding. It is oftenly argumented that Plug-in vehicles and electric cars are emission free - whereas in fact their emissions are just being shifted from the car exhaust to the powerplants chimney.

By checking real time energy supply data - for example at the agora website -> https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/service/recent-electricity-data/chart/power_generation we can see real time data of Power Generation and Consumption in Germany. It's clear to see that the consumption oftenly equlas 90% or more of the total production.

Due to a special renewable energy law, the owners of the power grid have to priorize net capacities for renewable energy sources. Most of these renewables come from Solar energy which is limited for a few hours daily, and onshore/offshore wind power. The typical times when BEV owners would start charging their cars in the evening around 18:00 show the highest CO2 emission factor or the power mix.

In addition to that, it should be known that very soon many of the state subsidies for wind power parks will run out, thus companies going to scramble and discontinue their wind parks due to high costs. Even in 2017 more than 65% of Germanys power consumption came from fossil fuels and nuclear power.



This altogether means, that electric cars in effect are not any cleaner than modern Diesel or gasoline hybrid vehicles - they are just notably more expensive, with less range and long charging times, that make them non-usable for typical apartment dormants who doesn't have their own parking lot. So why dump billions into an technology that doesn't make any change for the better and wich at the moment can't even be supported by the power production we have?



There was an TV show from February 2018, asking whether the german car industry have missed the connection to the future? (unfortunately the whole show is in German). The guests who had been invited for the show came to an quite understandable opinion.

According to them, the recent talk about BEVs and Plug-ins is all overhyped. The simple fact is that there won't be enough lithium available to support all markets of this world with batteries - regardless if you take todays technology or solid state batteries currentlyl under development.

We first have to handle the energy revolution, before we can make plans about future transportation. And this is also a reason why hydrogen makes much more sense, as it is the perfect energy storage and can be used also for buildings and many other locations outside of cars already.

fishchan
Profile for fishchan
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-13-2018 21:12
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Honda should make a small cold fusion powerplant and put it in the car.
lexusgs
Profile for lexusgs
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-13-2018 21:25
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Stupid politicians and gov. figures forcing their bullshit climate change agenda on the people. Have they really convinced a bunch of naive dumb asses they can change the weather/climate of a planet through legislation? Have fun with all the issues this is going to cause, just like when their politicians forced diesels on most of the population through high gas taxes which resulted in heavily polluted cities.
owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-14-2018 00:09
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KaizenDo wrote:
Carmakers forced to accelerate green plans

New European CO2 emissions targets to transform industry and drive electric car use


Up to now, the EU had the lowest CO2 emission targets by 2020 with 95g CO2/km. In a recent move, the EU parliament has decided to demand further reduction of car CO2 emissions by another 35% till 2030 - which would mean 61.75g/km and not only as lab-value of the NEDC, but instead of the more stringent WLTC.

These demands are completely bollocks and came from people without any sense of reality or technical understanding. It is oftenly argumented that Plug-in vehicles and electric cars are emission free - whereas in fact their emissions are just being shifted from the car exhaust to the powerplants chimney.

By checking real time energy supply data - for example at the agora website -> https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/service/recent-electricity-data/chart/power_generation we can see real time data of Power Generation and Consumption in Germany. It's clear to see that the consumption oftenly equlas 90% or more of the total production.

Due to a special renewable energy law, the owners of the power grid have to priorize net capacities for renewable energy sources. Most of these renewables come from Solar energy which is limited for a few hours daily, and onshore/offshore wind power. The typical times when BEV owners would start charging their cars in the evening around 18:00 show the highest CO2 emission factor or the power mix.

In addition to that, it should be known that very soon many of the state subsidies for wind power parks will run out, thus companies going to scramble and discontinue their wind parks due to high costs. Even in 2017 more than 65% of Germanys power consumption came from fossil fuels and nuclear power.



This altogether means, that electric cars in effect are not any cleaner than modern Diesel or gasoline hybrid vehicles - they are just notably more expensive, with less range and long charging times, that make them non-usable for typical apartment dormants who doesn't have their own parking lot. So why dump billions into an technology that doesn't make any change for the better and wich at the moment can't even be supported by the power production we have?



There was an TV show from February 2018, asking whether the german car industry have missed the connection to the future? (unfortunately the whole show is in German). The guests who had been invited for the show came to an quite understandable opinion.

According to them, the recent talk about BEVs and Plug-ins is all overhyped. The simple fact is that there won't be enough lithium available to support all markets of this world with batteries - regardless if you take todays technology or solid state batteries currentlyl under development.

We first have to handle the energy revolution, before we can make plans about future transportation. And this is also a reason why hydrogen makes much more sense, as it is the perfect energy storage and can be used also for buildings and many other locations outside of cars already.



This is going to be one of the lessons the world learns the hard way.

The assumptions are unrealistic at best, and like you said, they assume that A) emissions go away when the car runs on batteries and B) there is an endless supply of battery material available and that C) there is no environmental cost to extracting and refining said materials for use in these batteries (not to mention recycling).

Vxtec
Profile for Vxtec
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-14-2018 01:24
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No it is not!

As if petrol/diesel engines are not made of metal/alloys/rare metals/have at least one battery/recycled materials etc... nowadays! LOL

Besides with this century the future will be FCEV!

Full Stop! Cheers! :-)

Nick GravesX
Profile for Nick GravesX
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-14-2018 08:45
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That graph is hilariously great for the pollution-minded; filthy brown coal has remained pretty constant, whilst clean New Killer (Kernenergie) has been in decline! CO^2 - my arse!

Since Stupidity is apparently the most common element, can we not derive energy from that?


KaizenDo
Profile for KaizenDo
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-14-2018 10:11
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German fail policy at it's best.



And if we do shit, we do worst shit or nothing - Mercedes.

lexusgs
Profile for lexusgs
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-14-2018 13:20
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Those stupid politicians also flooding their countries with 3rd World migrants is going to do far more damage and create more issues then oil/diesel cars ever did.
incubus
Profile for incubus
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-15-2018 18:45
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KaizenDo wrote:
It is oftenly argumented that Plug-in vehicles and electric cars are emission free - whereas in fact their emissions are just being shifted from the car exhaust to the powerplantís chimney.

I think itís important to point out the fallacy of this statement. Up until a few months ago, I had heard the same thing and regurgitated it as fact as well. Yes, you are shifting pollution up stream, but there are 3 important points to make about this shift:
1. Electric cars are far more efficient per mile and therefore pull less energy from the grid than their ICE counterpart would consume in petrol (contributing less greenhouse gasses.)
2. Our power gridís green energy % increases every day, which means the impact of the electric car decreases every day while the ICE car remains pretty consistent with slight increases as the drive train and motor break down.
3. An electric carís carbon footprint is largely front loaded whenpowered by renewables. An estimated avg of 80% of its carbon footprint is in production, while an ICE vehicle consistently extends its carbon footprint.

incubus
Profile for incubus
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-15-2018 18:52
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I donít blame you or anyone for not noticing this, because they sure as sh*t tried to hide it, but even the Trump administration is expecting a 7 degree C rise in global temperatures by 2100. In case you arenít aware thatís an ELE (extinction level event.) Its not BS, itís not a hoax, weíre seriously running out of time, and the corporations contributing the most to climate change along with our current administration are sweeing it under the rug and are comfortable riding us straight into extinction. Please please, I urge you research it, and I donít mean read and listen to propaganda from the fossil fuel Industry.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.072163cb82f3

JeffX
Profile for JeffX
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-15-2018 20:52
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Interesting stuff in this report from McKinsey.

notyper
Profile for notyper
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-15-2018 22:08
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incubus wrote:
I donít blame you or anyone for not noticing this, because they sure as sh*t tried to hide it, but even the Trump administration is expecting a 7 degree C rise in global temperatures by 2100. In case you arenít aware thatís an ELE (extinction level event.) Its not BS, itís not a hoax, weíre seriously running out of time, and the corporations contributing the most to climate change along with our current administration are sweeing it under the rug and are comfortable riding us straight into extinction. Please please, I urge you research it, and I donít mean read and listen to propaganda from the fossil fuel Industry.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.072163cb82f3



I'm sorry, but I laughed out loud when I read this post and the attached article.

First, you do understand that all the models that have showed that level of warming have never been even close to predicting actual temperatures to date. They don't even hindcast accurately. They are horribly flawed at best, and they all err in predicting far more warming than what has occurred. Garbage in, garbage out.

Second, you must also understand that the Trump administration simply used the most apocalyptic of climate models that the Obama administration was using to justify the previous, higher fuel economy standards. Only in this case, the Trump administration used them to show that regardless of the fuel economy standard, global temps would not change by any meaningful amount.

It's rather brilliant when you think about it. Take the most catastrophic, doomsaying argument your opponents can make and use it to show that their fuel economy standards do absolute squat to change anything. If the Trump admin had used one of the less scary models, you just know someone from the other side would have said they were trying to minimize the impact of the fuel economy standards. Bureaucratic and regulatory judo, if you will.

SC

JeffX
Profile for JeffX
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-16-2018 10:14
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but we were all told that "Clean Diesel" was the clear cut answer to all of these CO2 problems

Again, it appears we're going down this same road.

Check out this article by Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/the-dirt-on-clean-electric-cars


Dren
Profile for Dren
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-16-2018 10:31
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incubus wrote:

1. Electric cars are far more efficient per mile and therefore pull less energy from the grid than their ICE counterpart would consume in petrol (contributing less greenhouse gasses.)

3. An electric carís carbon footprint is largely front loaded whenpowered by renewables. An estimated avg of 80% of its carbon footprint is in production, while an ICE vehicle consistently extends its carbon footprint.



1. You have to take into account the efficiencies of power plants and transmission line losses.

3. Yes, when powered by hydro/wind/solar, which is a small percentage of power production. Yes, renewable sources are increasing, but if electric car usage increases, power demand will increase and that increase has to come from other sources: gas, nuclear, coal.

CarPhreakD
Profile for CarPhreakD
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-16-2018 12:41
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JeffX wrote:
but we were all told that "Clean Diesel" was the clear cut answer to all of these CO2 problems

Again, it appears we're going down this same road.

Check out this article by Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/the-dirt-on-clean-electric-cars




Norway is kind of interesting. Is it a flat line because all electricity used there is carbon neutral? Bloomberg states that the area is almost entirely hydro-electric.

The article in general seems to suggest that if you were to simply build your batteries in places that are NOT coal dependent (such as Germany, Poland, China), you slash the total lifecycle emissions (cradle to grave) of the vehicle substantially. It's not exactly rocket surgery and makes perfect sense. I contend that the bigger barrier to widespread adoption of batteries are resources, like cobalt and lithium. I'm not even concerned about battery recycling- since the secondary energy storage market for hobbyists and industries will always have a use for battery packs and they can be recycled.

That being the case, it would actually be much better if batteries were produced in Ontario (assuming our government can stop kicking businesses in the dick and do something about our electricity costs), Texas, the Nordic countries, etc. with a higher percentage of renewable energy.

JeffX
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Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-16-2018 13:17
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CarPhreakD wrote:
JeffX wrote:
but we were all told that "Clean Diesel" was the clear cut answer to all of these CO2 problems

Again, it appears we're going down this same road.

Check out this article by Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/the-dirt-on-clean-electric-cars




Norway is kind of interesting. Is it a flat line because all electricity used there is carbon neutral? Bloomberg states that the area is almost entirely hydro-electric.

The article in general seems to suggest that if you were to simply build your batteries in places that are NOT coal dependent (such as Germany, Poland, China), you slash the total lifecycle emissions (cradle to grave) of the vehicle substantially. It's not exactly rocket surgery and makes perfect sense. I contend that the bigger barrier to widespread adoption of batteries are resources, like cobalt and lithium. I'm not even concerned about battery recycling- since the secondary energy storage market for hobbyists and industries will always have a use for battery packs and they can be recycled.

That being the case, it would actually be much better if batteries were produced in Ontario (assuming our government can stop kicking businesses in the dick and do something about our electricity costs), Texas, the Nordic countries, etc. with a higher percentage of renewable energy.



Yes, it's showing that you reach the "break even" point much sooner in areas where the energy source is "clean" or carbon neutral.

And it is true that if the battery is built in a factory that uses carbon-neutral sources then you're even better off.

These are solvable problems, given enough time and money, but as you point out, the required resources are a big problem with no clear solution.

Also, I still think recycling remains a huge challenge. The suitability of these 1200-1500lb battery packs for down cycling is limited - as you say, hobbyists and tinkerers may have an interest but the more aggressive chemistries (NCA in Tesla) aren't very well suited for stationary storage purposes. You might be able to squeeze a few years of extra use out of them in their degraded state, but eventually they're just landfill. And if you start putting 15-20M of these on the road every year in the US, at some point you're going to be seeing millions of degraded or failed packs coming out of the fleet each year.

Nick GravesX
Profile for Nick GravesX
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-17-2018 05:38
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LiFePO4s might well be more useful for storage once they are degraded than these old-fashioned Li-ion things.

Then again, phosphates are another enviro-concern.

We'll probably get there, eventually...




sadlerau
Profile for sadlerau
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-17-2018 08:57
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There are lithium deposits popping up all over my home state, we already supply a lot of the worlds iron ore, looks like we'll be doing the same with lithium and nickel. The real issue for us is to make sure we "value add" on-shore, rather than shipping the real value off shore.
Nick GravesX
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Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-17-2018 12:08
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It's pretty worthless unless you dehydrate the salts and extract the Li.

There are some interesting new 'quick' ways of doing it, rather than leave it out in the sun for a year.

CarPhreakD
Profile for CarPhreakD
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-17-2018 13:01
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sadlerau wrote:
There are lithium deposits popping up all over my home state, we already supply a lot of the worlds iron ore, looks like we'll be doing the same with lithium and nickel. The real issue for us is to make sure we "value add" on-shore, rather than shipping the real value off shore.


Yes, but considering what has been happening in Australia lately, I wouldn't be surprised if you simply sell the mines to your government of China overlords.

sadlerau
Profile for sadlerau
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-17-2018 17:53
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CarPhreakD wrote:
sadlerau wrote:
There are lithium deposits popping up all over my home state, we already supply a lot of the worlds iron ore, looks like we'll be doing the same with lithium and nickel. The real issue for us is to make sure we "value add" on-shore, rather than shipping the real value off shore.


Yes, but considering what has been happening in Australia lately, I wouldn't be surprised if you simply sell the mines to your government of China overlords.



Well aware of that, but the problem starts with a lack of population. In a state the size of Texas and Alaska COMBINED, with a population of only 2.5 million, it's hard to generate the capital without foreign investment.

KaizenDo
Profile for KaizenDo
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-20-2018 13:50
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I'd like to invite you guys to have a look at this real time data of Germanys electricity production for today:

https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/service/recent-electricity-data/chart/power_generation/17.10.2018/20.10.2018/

I don't know how similar data would look in the US, but in Germany you can see renewable energy mainly consist of solar energy and wind power.

Solar energy is available only in mentionable numbers from 06:00 to 18:00 which is also the time that most employees in Germany spend their time working their jobs. Wind energy heavily depends on weather conditions.

Now lets do a CO2 comparision based on real world data.

Let's assume a family with one car, which is used by one person to go to work 06:00 to 18:00 on workdays. What will be the results?

VW e-Golf (100kW)
https://www.adac.de/infotestrat/tests/auto-test/detail.aspx?IDTest=5678
Price tag = 35,900 EUR
Electricity use including battery losses = 17.3 kWh/100km
Electricity use including grid loss 5.7% = 18.3 kWh/100km
CO2 emission factor after 18:00 = 610g/kWh+
Final CO2 emissions = 112g CO2/km

VW Golf 1.5L TSI DSG (96kW)
https://www.adac.de/infotestrat/autodatenbank/autokatalog/detail.aspx?mid=282545&test=Auto
Price tag = 28,350 EUR
Final CO2 emissions = 159g CO2/km

Toyota Prius (90kw)
https://www.adac.de/infotestrat/autodatenbank/autokatalog/detail.aspx?mid=253808&test=Auto
Price tag = 32,150 EUR
Final CO2 emissions = 115g CO2/km

Hyundai Ioniq 1.6L Hybrid (104kW)
https://www.adac.de/infotestrat/autodatenbank/autokatalog/detail.aspx?mid=259957&test=Auto
Price tag = 30,270 EUR
Final CO2 emissions = 136g CO2/km

Honda Civic 1.0L Turbo (95kW)
https://www.adac.de/infotestrat/autodatenbank/autokatalog/detail.aspx?mid=267876&test=Auto
Price tag = 25,170 EUR
Final CO2 emissions = 173g CO2/km

Honda Jazz 1.5L (96kW)
https://www.adac.de/infotestrat/autodatenbank/autokatalog/detail.aspx?mid=286204&test=Auto
Price tag= 19,990 EUR
Final CO2 emissions = 166g CO2/km

As it can be seen, the BEV is the most expensive option, which comes with an effective range of 200km. Now why should anyone with a decent amount of common sense go and buy an BEV, when a modern Hybrid as the 4th Gen Prius offers almost the same low CO2 emisions (3g difference only), but comes cheaper, with more space and an range of 1045km?

That being said, we are still lacking behind the latest generation of Hybrid cars from manufacuters beside Toyota and Hyundai. No competetive data for an Honda Insight 3rd Gen, or an Nissan Note e-Power serial hybrid.

VTEC_Inside
Profile for VTEC_Inside
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-20-2018 14:25
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Nick GravesX wrote:
LiFePO4s might well be more useful for storage once they are degraded than these old-fashioned Li-ion things.

Then again, phosphates are another enviro-concern.

We'll probably get there, eventually...




That chemistry might not be well suited to use in a car. I'm into RC racing and we use LiPos in our cars and LiFe in our transmitters because the aren't up to the amp draw.

MarkR
Profile for MarkR
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-21-2018 10:28
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It's good to have TOV to read, keeps you real :)

As there is a super strong push towards EV/Electric in my part of the world, those who can afford, most try to go electric. Only thing keeping 90% of the public buying is the cost. Teslas are too expensive for the generic family and the i3 is too expensive as a second city car.

I can see the the BMW i3 is having some mighty fine residuals and looking at petrol stonkers... not so much.

but then I read TOV that all is wrong and I'm back to the good old times.

KaizenDo
Profile for KaizenDo
Re: European CO2 madness and why electromobility is pointless    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-23-2018 11:47
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MarkR wrote:
It's good to have TOV to read, keeps you real :)

As there is a super strong push towards EV/Electric in my part of the world, those who can afford, most try to go electric. Only thing keeping 90% of the public buying is the cost. Teslas are too expensive for the generic family and the i3 is too expensive as a second city car.

I can see the the BMW i3 is having some mighty fine residuals and looking at petrol stonkers... not so much.

but then I read TOV that all is wrong and I'm back to the good old times.



According to the data, Sweden has rich abundance of low or zero Co2 energy sources. With that in mind, BEVs make sense.

https://www.google.de/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=2ahUKEwiIn7X88ZzeAhUCLlAKHTw6CmEQFjADegQIBhAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iva.se%2Fglobalassets%2F201604-iva-vagvalel-elproduktion-english-c.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2YgkYbQIP8gFtogpwZMqaL

Over 50% of Swedens power come from continously available hydro or nuclear power - no need to buffer stock produced energy as with renewables in Germany or Japan. But not every country is blessed with such infrastructure


 
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