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TOV Forums > Today's Reading Links > > Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin

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JeffX
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Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-05-2018 20:48
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX, we are not going to agree on the welds, but frankly, neither of us has enough data to say whether there is an impact to safety or long term reliability.

JeffX wrote:

And as they were falling behind plan during this ridiculous, unsustainable "burst production" week, apparently there was an executive order sent down that eliminated some sort of "brake and roll" test.

Elon Musk ordered Tesla engineers to stop doing a critical brake test on Model 3s

"If you just abandon that [the test] you could potentially have a lot of quality issues with your customers," he said. "Every plant does that ... it's part of finishing the build of the car."


If you buy one of these hunks of shit after seeing stuff like this (and how crappy they've generally been coming off the line), you deserve all of the inconvenience and pain of ownership that's coming your way.


Again, we do not know the rationale for eliminating this test.

Based on what I've seen on YouTube and Model3OwnersClub, the quality of Model 3 has gotten better and better over the past few months.

I think it is premature to reach such confident (and hateful) conclusions.




I'm not some clueless wall street bro in the peanut gallery nor some clueless starry-eyed member of mainstream media.

After earning a degree in electrical engineering, my first job out of college was as a quality engineer at a tier 1 automotive supplier. Our primary product was electric motors but there were other items made there. My desk was in the cube farm front office portion of a >300000 square foot factory. The lines moved extremely fast - I don't remember how many components per shift we were putting out but it was a big number. It was a 6-sigma operation so there were QC tests at every stage of production and my job was to track the results, make sure the test equipment was always properly calibrated, identify any production issues, diagnose the cause, and if necessary, we'd have to design a solution to fix and improve the quality.

I have also toured numerous automotive factories and R&D facilities in the US and Japan. I have spoken to a number of production engineers, design engineers, and manufacturing associates to understand their processes and how everything is checked for quality.

You just can't remove a rigorous instrumented multi-stage quality check from the process and expect everything to be okay. Tesla is able to satisfy their adoring masses by saying they "test" everything on a track. There is absolutely no way that driving the car around the track can possibly reveal the same type of quality issues that a precision test instrument could reveal at the component level on the production line. Sure, a human can test for obvious defects with a drive (and most car companies do these types of tests at the end of the line) but you'll never be able to catch things that are slightly out of spec. That's why you have those tests further upstream.




(1) You accuse me of taking what Tesla says at "face value", yet, you apparently take Business Insider's accusations at "face value", despite the fact that this publication is (a) a member of the "clueless" (your words) "mainstream media", and (b) caters to "clueless" (again your words) "Wall Street bro[s]".



Actually I used those words because you brought this notion into the topic

atomiclightbulb wrote:
Alex's observation is that much of the narrative around Tesla is stoked up by:

(1) Journalists and the Mainstream Media, who have little actual knowledge of cars.




(2) You do not know what "brake and roll" is. You in fact characterized it as "some sort of "brake and roll" test."

You therefore aren't in any position to say whether the test might be redundant. We simply do not know if there are checks elsewhere in the production line that observe for proper alignment and brake system functionality.

What would be a red flag, is if Alignment and Brakes are listed as issues in the Consumer Reports reliability survey. There is simply not enough information to say whether or not this is an issue, because we don't have the full picture of the manufacturing process.

I said I didn't know what it was before I saw this. I should have included this in my earlier response:



The "Brake and roll" looks like a fairly extensive set of tests. Repeatability would be critical for many of these. There's no way some production associate wheeling a car around a tiny little test track would be able to accurately assess all of the measurements that this line test would produce. It would also take considerably more time to perform this manually.







Last edited by JeffX on 07-05-2018 20:51
superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-06-2018 00:50
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX wrote:
So, there are reports that Tesla took a number of shortcuts to achieve their target (which they actually missed by several hundred units it seems).

To speed up the line they eliminated some 300 spot welds from the body. I don't know what that does to the structural integrity but I imagine it's not a positive benefit.


The Times article says that the Model 3 still has approximately 5000 spot welds. 300 welds out of 5300 is 5.7% of the total.

People should note that the decision to make this engineering change happened in a vague time period, stated as "recent weeks" according to the article. We don't know exactly when this change was made, or the testing and analysis done.

I think it is highly unlikely that Tesla would put this into production without verifying that safety and performance would not be compromised.

People should also note that rapid design changes were common with the Model S. Many parts underwent significant revisions, even if the car still looked the same on the outside.



And as they were falling behind plan during this ridiculous, unsustainable "burst production" week, apparently there was an executive order sent down that eliminated some sort of "brake and roll" test.

Elon Musk ordered Tesla engineers to stop doing a critical brake test on Model 3s

"If you just abandon that [the test] you could potentially have a lot of quality issues with your customers," he said. "Every plant does that ... it's part of finishing the build of the car."


If you buy one of these hunks of shit after seeing stuff like this (and how crappy they've generally been coming off the line), you deserve all of the inconvenience and pain of ownership that's coming your way.


Again, we do not know the rationale for eliminating this test.

Based on what I've seen on YouTube and Model3OwnersClub, the quality of Model 3 has gotten better and better over the past few months.

I think it is premature to reach such confident (and hateful) conclusions.


I agree with JeffX that the Model3 is a rolling crap shoot, since you really don't know if the bugs have been worked out when it's new, and what it will morph into later on when Elon tweeks it in your garage.

Speaking of bugs, tell someone that their $50,000 car was built in a tent and they will probably say "give me back my deposit".

And having to look away from the road to operate a screen while you are driving is just plain silly. Much the same as texting while driving.

superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-06-2018 01:03
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX wrote:
So, there are reports that Tesla took a number of shortcuts to achieve their target (which they actually missed by several hundred units it seems).

To speed up the line they eliminated some 300 spot welds from the body. I don't know what that does to the structural integrity but I imagine it's not a positive benefit.


The Times article says that the Model 3 still has approximately 5000 spot welds. 300 welds out of 5300 is 5.7% of the total.

People should note that the decision to make this engineering change happened in a vague time period, stated as "recent weeks" according to the article. We don't know exactly when this change was made, or the testing and analysis done.

I think it is highly unlikely that Tesla would put this into production without verifying that safety and performance would not be compromised.

People should also note that rapid design changes were common with the Model S. Many parts underwent significant revisions, even if the car still looked the same on the outside.



And as they were falling behind plan during this ridiculous, unsustainable "burst production" week, apparently there was an executive order sent down that eliminated some sort of "brake and roll" test.

Elon Musk ordered Tesla engineers to stop doing a critical brake test on Model 3s

"If you just abandon that [the test] you could potentially have a lot of quality issues with your customers," he said. "Every plant does that ... it's part of finishing the build of the car."


If you buy one of these hunks of shit after seeing stuff like this (and how crappy they've generally been coming off the line), you deserve all of the inconvenience and pain of ownership that's coming your way.


Again, we do not know the rationale for eliminating this test.

Based on what I've seen on YouTube and Model3OwnersClub, the quality of Model 3 has gotten better and better over the past few months.

I think it is premature to reach such confident (and hateful) conclusions.


I agree with JeffX that the Model3 is a rolling crap shoot, since you really don't know if the bugs have been worked out when it's new, and what it will morph into later on when Elon tweeks it in your garage.

Speaking of bugs, tell someone that their $50,000 car was built in a tent and they will probably say "give me back my deposit".

And having to look away from the road to operate a screen while you are driving is just plain silly. Much the same as texting while driving.




DCR
Profile for DCR
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-06-2018 02:22
Reply to This Message Attach Quote to Reply
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/ugh

Read that.

You will notice a pattern.

superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-06-2018 07:11
Reply to This Message Attach Quote to Reply
DCR wrote:
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/ugh

Read that.

You will notice a pattern.


"Also, the driver door sill entry was very scratched and scuffed. As if MANY people got in and out of the car, and all dragged their feet across it??? Very strange. The car said it only had 15 miles but the door sill looked like I have owned it for a year. The area of center console, where the key card goes, was very scratched up... With MANY scratches. Again, it looked like I had been using the car for a year and just using the key card??? "

After seeing this, I would never have taken delivery of the car.


atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-06-2018 18:21
Reply to This Message Attach Quote to Reply
JeffX wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX, we are not going to agree on the welds, but frankly, neither of us has enough data to say whether there is an impact to safety or long term reliability.

JeffX wrote:

And as they were falling behind plan during this ridiculous, unsustainable "burst production" week, apparently there was an executive order sent down that eliminated some sort of "brake and roll" test.

Elon Musk ordered Tesla engineers to stop doing a critical brake test on Model 3s

"If you just abandon that [the test] you could potentially have a lot of quality issues with your customers," he said. "Every plant does that ... it's part of finishing the build of the car."


If you buy one of these hunks of shit after seeing stuff like this (and how crappy they've generally been coming off the line), you deserve all of the inconvenience and pain of ownership that's coming your way.


Again, we do not know the rationale for eliminating this test.

Based on what I've seen on YouTube and Model3OwnersClub, the quality of Model 3 has gotten better and better over the past few months.

I think it is premature to reach such confident (and hateful) conclusions.




I'm not some clueless wall street bro in the peanut gallery nor some clueless starry-eyed member of mainstream media.

After earning a degree in electrical engineering, my first job out of college was as a quality engineer at a tier 1 automotive supplier. Our primary product was electric motors but there were other items made there. My desk was in the cube farm front office portion of a >300000 square foot factory. The lines moved extremely fast - I don't remember how many components per shift we were putting out but it was a big number. It was a 6-sigma operation so there were QC tests at every stage of production and my job was to track the results, make sure the test equipment was always properly calibrated, identify any production issues, diagnose the cause, and if necessary, we'd have to design a solution to fix and improve the quality.

I have also toured numerous automotive factories and R&D facilities in the US and Japan. I have spoken to a number of production engineers, design engineers, and manufacturing associates to understand their processes and how everything is checked for quality.

You just can't remove a rigorous instrumented multi-stage quality check from the process and expect everything to be okay. Tesla is able to satisfy their adoring masses by saying they "test" everything on a track. There is absolutely no way that driving the car around the track can possibly reveal the same type of quality issues that a precision test instrument could reveal at the component level on the production line. Sure, a human can test for obvious defects with a drive (and most car companies do these types of tests at the end of the line) but you'll never be able to catch things that are slightly out of spec. That's why you have those tests further upstream.




(1) You accuse me of taking what Tesla says at "face value", yet, you apparently take Business Insider's accusations at "face value", despite the fact that this publication is (a) a member of the "clueless" (your words) "mainstream media", and (b) caters to "clueless" (again your words) "Wall Street bro[s]".



Actually I used those words because you brought this notion into the topic

atomiclightbulb wrote:
Alex's observation is that much of the narrative around Tesla is stoked up by:

(1) Journalists and the Mainstream Media, who have little actual knowledge of cars.




(2) You do not know what "brake and roll" is. You in fact characterized it as "some sort of "brake and roll" test."

You therefore aren't in any position to say whether the test might be redundant. We simply do not know if there are checks elsewhere in the production line that observe for proper alignment and brake system functionality.

What would be a red flag, is if Alignment and Brakes are listed as issues in the Consumer Reports reliability survey. There is simply not enough information to say whether or not this is an issue, because we don't have the full picture of the manufacturing process.

I said I didn't know what it was before I saw this. I should have included this in my earlier response:



The "Brake and roll" looks like a fairly extensive set of tests. Repeatability would be critical for many of these. There's no way some production associate wheeling a car around a tiny little test track would be able to accurately assess all of the measurements that this line test would produce. It would also take considerably more time to perform this manually.







Ok, those are fair points.

But it does raise a big question. If the automated test is almost certainly faster and more accurate than a worker driving a car around the track, why dispense with the automated test instead of the more time consuming test?

The only possibility I can think of, is that the Model 3's computer system may have sufficiently advanced self-diagnostic systems that can reliably report errors of the sort also detected in the Brake and Roll test. Hackers have accessed the Diagnostics and other low-level system outputs on other Tesla vehicles, via the touch screen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtnKnyH3Q4E.

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-06-2018 18:27
Reply to This Message Attach Quote to Reply
To clarify a bit more on my theory:

The Brake and Roll test uses computerized measurements of how the hardware behaves.

Under the original build regime, Tesla is said to have used both (1) Brake and Roll test and (2) Track Test to verify the operation of wheels and brake system.

If the Model 3's onboard diagnostics can sufficiently verify hardware operation, then only the Track Test would be needed to have both a computer system and a human verify that the systems are working as designed.

Again, only a theory.

owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-07-2018 00:55
Reply to This Message Attach Quote to Reply
atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX, we are not going to agree on the welds, but frankly, neither of us has enough data to say whether there is an impact to safety or long term reliability.

JeffX wrote:

And as they were falling behind plan during this ridiculous, unsustainable "burst production" week, apparently there was an executive order sent down that eliminated some sort of "brake and roll" test.

Elon Musk ordered Tesla engineers to stop doing a critical brake test on Model 3s

"If you just abandon that [the test] you could potentially have a lot of quality issues with your customers," he said. "Every plant does that ... it's part of finishing the build of the car."


If you buy one of these hunks of shit after seeing stuff like this (and how crappy they've generally been coming off the line), you deserve all of the inconvenience and pain of ownership that's coming your way.


Again, we do not know the rationale for eliminating this test.

Based on what I've seen on YouTube and Model3OwnersClub, the quality of Model 3 has gotten better and better over the past few months.

I think it is premature to reach such confident (and hateful) conclusions.




I'm not some clueless wall street bro in the peanut gallery nor some clueless starry-eyed member of mainstream media.

After earning a degree in electrical engineering, my first job out of college was as a quality engineer at a tier 1 automotive supplier. Our primary product was electric motors but there were other items made there. My desk was in the cube farm front office portion of a >300000 square foot factory. The lines moved extremely fast - I don't remember how many components per shift we were putting out but it was a big number. It was a 6-sigma operation so there were QC tests at every stage of production and my job was to track the results, make sure the test equipment was always properly calibrated, identify any production issues, diagnose the cause, and if necessary, we'd have to design a solution to fix and improve the quality.

I have also toured numerous automotive factories and R&D facilities in the US and Japan. I have spoken to a number of production engineers, design engineers, and manufacturing associates to understand their processes and how everything is checked for quality.

You just can't remove a rigorous instrumented multi-stage quality check from the process and expect everything to be okay. Tesla is able to satisfy their adoring masses by saying they "test" everything on a track. There is absolutely no way that driving the car around the track can possibly reveal the same type of quality issues that a precision test instrument could reveal at the component level on the production line. Sure, a human can test for obvious defects with a drive (and most car companies do these types of tests at the end of the line) but you'll never be able to catch things that are slightly out of spec. That's why you have those tests further upstream.




(1) You accuse me of taking what Tesla says at "face value", yet, you apparently take Business Insider's accusations at "face value", despite the fact that this publication is (a) a member of the "clueless" (your words) "mainstream media", and (b) caters to "clueless" (again your words) "Wall Street bro[s]".



Actually I used those words because you brought this notion into the topic

atomiclightbulb wrote:
Alex's observation is that much of the narrative around Tesla is stoked up by:

(1) Journalists and the Mainstream Media, who have little actual knowledge of cars.




(2) You do not know what "brake and roll" is. You in fact characterized it as "some sort of "brake and roll" test."

You therefore aren't in any position to say whether the test might be redundant. We simply do not know if there are checks elsewhere in the production line that observe for proper alignment and brake system functionality.

What would be a red flag, is if Alignment and Brakes are listed as issues in the Consumer Reports reliability survey. There is simply not enough information to say whether or not this is an issue, because we don't have the full picture of the manufacturing process.

I said I didn't know what it was before I saw this. I should have included this in my earlier response:



The "Brake and roll" looks like a fairly extensive set of tests. Repeatability would be critical for many of these. There's no way some production associate wheeling a car around a tiny little test track would be able to accurately assess all of the measurements that this line test would produce. It would also take considerably more time to perform this manually.







Ok, those are fair points.

But it does raise a big question. If the automated test is almost certainly faster and more accurate than a worker driving a car around the track, why dispense with the automated test instead of the more time consuming test?

The only possibility I can think of, is that the Model 3's computer system may have sufficiently advanced self-diagnostic systems that can reliably report errors of the sort also detected in the Brake and Roll test. Hackers have accessed the Diagnostics and other low-level system outputs on other Tesla vehicles, via the touch screen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtnKnyH3Q4E.



Why eliminate the technology and R&D on Autopilot?

Why eliminate the usual prototyping and predevelopment stages?

Just because Tesla eliminated it, doesn't mean it wasn't necessary or a good idea to have around.

owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-07-2018 03:26
Reply to This Message Attach Quote to Reply
owequitit wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX, we are not going to agree on the welds, but frankly, neither of us has enough data to say whether there is an impact to safety or long term reliability.

JeffX wrote:

And as they were falling behind plan during this ridiculous, unsustainable "burst production" week, apparently there was an executive order sent down that eliminated some sort of "brake and roll" test.

Elon Musk ordered Tesla engineers to stop doing a critical brake test on Model 3s

"If you just abandon that [the test] you could potentially have a lot of quality issues with your customers," he said. "Every plant does that ... it's part of finishing the build of the car."


If you buy one of these hunks of shit after seeing stuff like this (and how crappy they've generally been coming off the line), you deserve all of the inconvenience and pain of ownership that's coming your way.


Again, we do not know the rationale for eliminating this test.

Based on what I've seen on YouTube and Model3OwnersClub, the quality of Model 3 has gotten better and better over the past few months.

I think it is premature to reach such confident (and hateful) conclusions.




I'm not some clueless wall street bro in the peanut gallery nor some clueless starry-eyed member of mainstream media.

After earning a degree in electrical engineering, my first job out of college was as a quality engineer at a tier 1 automotive supplier. Our primary product was electric motors but there were other items made there. My desk was in the cube farm front office portion of a >300000 square foot factory. The lines moved extremely fast - I don't remember how many components per shift we were putting out but it was a big number. It was a 6-sigma operation so there were QC tests at every stage of production and my job was to track the results, make sure the test equipment was always properly calibrated, identify any production issues, diagnose the cause, and if necessary, we'd have to design a solution to fix and improve the quality.

I have also toured numerous automotive factories and R&D facilities in the US and Japan. I have spoken to a number of production engineers, design engineers, and manufacturing associates to understand their processes and how everything is checked for quality.

You just can't remove a rigorous instrumented multi-stage quality check from the process and expect everything to be okay. Tesla is able to satisfy their adoring masses by saying they "test" everything on a track. There is absolutely no way that driving the car around the track can possibly reveal the same type of quality issues that a precision test instrument could reveal at the component level on the production line. Sure, a human can test for obvious defects with a drive (and most car companies do these types of tests at the end of the line) but you'll never be able to catch things that are slightly out of spec. That's why you have those tests further upstream.




(1) You accuse me of taking what Tesla says at "face value", yet, you apparently take Business Insider's accusations at "face value", despite the fact that this publication is (a) a member of the "clueless" (your words) "mainstream media", and (b) caters to "clueless" (again your words) "Wall Street bro[s]".



Actually I used those words because you brought this notion into the topic

atomiclightbulb wrote:
Alex's observation is that much of the narrative around Tesla is stoked up by:

(1) Journalists and the Mainstream Media, who have little actual knowledge of cars.




(2) You do not know what "brake and roll" is. You in fact characterized it as "some sort of "brake and roll" test."

You therefore aren't in any position to say whether the test might be redundant. We simply do not know if there are checks elsewhere in the production line that observe for proper alignment and brake system functionality.

What would be a red flag, is if Alignment and Brakes are listed as issues in the Consumer Reports reliability survey. There is simply not enough information to say whether or not this is an issue, because we don't have the full picture of the manufacturing process.

I said I didn't know what it was before I saw this. I should have included this in my earlier response:



The "Brake and roll" looks like a fairly extensive set of tests. Repeatability would be critical for many of these. There's no way some production associate wheeling a car around a tiny little test track would be able to accurately assess all of the measurements that this line test would produce. It would also take considerably more time to perform this manually.







Ok, those are fair points.

But it does raise a big question. If the automated test is almost certainly faster and more accurate than a worker driving a car around the track, why dispense with the automated test instead of the more time consuming test?

The only possibility I can think of, is that the Model 3's computer system may have sufficiently advanced self-diagnostic systems that can reliably report errors of the sort also detected in the Brake and Roll test. Hackers have accessed the Diagnostics and other low-level system outputs on other Tesla vehicles, via the touch screen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtnKnyH3Q4E.



Why eliminate the technology and R&D on Autopilot?

Why eliminate the usual prototyping and predevelopment stages?

Just because Tesla eliminated it, doesn't mean it wasn't necessary or a good idea to have around.



P.S. Just an opposing theory, but most computer test equipment on a production line or regimented test is regularly calibrated, measured and verified.

If Tesla is using the onboard hardware, then how would they know the hardware was producing valid results if it hadn't been tested against a known accurate battery of equipment? If there is a 3-5% error allowed in the operation of the equipment on the car then Tesla could see up to a 10% variance in results, and that is assuming that the base performance of each unit is exactly the same, and that is impossible to verify unless they calibrate it and verify it.

I know you don't like it much, but onboard airplane systems have millions of dollars in GPS receivers, IRUs (with ring laser gyros, which literally measure the speed of light) and other transmitters and sensors and they still aren't that accurate and require testing and calibration. I don't see stuff being worth a couple hundred bucks that isn't verified being that accurate, but I am sure Jeff, Shawn and Tony can talk more about that.

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-12-2018 20:21
Reply to This Message Attach Quote to Reply
JeffX wrote:
The "Brake and roll" looks like a fairly extensive set of tests. Repeatability would be critical for many of these. There's no way some production associate wheeling a car around a tiny little test track would be able to accurately assess all of the measurements that this line test would produce. It would also take considerably more time to perform this manually.


Bloomberg published what appears to be a fairly gory and detailed account of both the chaos and success of Model 3 production: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-07-12/how-tesla-s-model-3-became-elon-musk-s-version-of-hell

Items I found of interest:

(1) There is what may be a partial answer to the "Brake and Roll" mystery:

Tesla bought two robotics companies, Grohmann Engineering in Germany and Perbix in Minnesota. Field’s team invented dozens of industrial processes. One involved a tool called the golden wheel, an apparatus that automatically breaks in suspensions and aligns cars in one step without humans.
There's also a photo of the device.

If the "Golden Wheel" itself is a calibrated instrument that takes appropriate measurements, it may render some of "Brake and Roll" to be redundant. It's hard to say for sure, but if the article is correct, much of Tesla's assembly line and process is unconventional.

(2) Workers were pushed to the limits, often working 12 hour shifts and sometimes as much as 16 hours. Musk himself slept on the floor of a conference room, saying: “The reason people in the paint shop were working their asses off was because I was with them. I’m not in some ivory tower.”

(3) Safety culture appears to have been lax in late 2016. In a particularly egregious incident, workers fooled around, doing doughnuts in a Forklift. One worker was struck in the leg, and was so badly injured that the leg had to be amputated. Bizarrely, Cal/OSHA characterized the injury as an "ankle fracture".

(4) The "Tent" assembly line was built out of parts from a failed "General Assembly" automated line. Currently, another GA line assembles about 4k Model 3 per week, and the tent assembles 1k.

(5) "At present, the Model 3 is selling more units in the U.S. than any comparably priced midsize sedan, including those offered by Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi. It’s fast and fun to drive."

In sum: Tesla is a crazy, chaotic place, but somehow, they are making it work. Model 3 is stealing market share at the expense of the Germans.

JeffX
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-16-2018 11:17
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Interesting results from the Munro & Associates teardown. Munro says there's >30% gross margin in the Model 3, but he doesn't say at which price? Maybe the exact model they tore down?



If Tesla wasn't so terrible at manufacturing and corporate hygiene, they really could make a lot of money on these things. Clearly there's plenty of demand.

JeffX
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-16-2018 11:35
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JeffX wrote:
Interesting results from the Munro & Associates teardown. Munro says there's >30% gross margin in the Model 3, but he doesn't say at which price? Maybe the exact model they tore down?




If Tesla wasn't so terrible at manufacturing and corporate hygiene, they really could make a lot of money on these things. Clearly there's plenty of demand.



I'm now seeing that the cost analysis was on the fully loaded long range premium trim level car they tore down, including the autopilot "FSD" option, so about $60k.


gofast182
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-16-2018 14:06
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Yeah, on the premium model I'd expect them to have more margin built into each option and since some are built into software/firmware they incur little extra cost to furnish them.

Even so, gross margin is only part of the story. It doesn't account for some of the other costs to run the factory. By the time you absorb all of those costs, what's the net profit? I think we know it isn't good.

CarPhreakD
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-16-2018 16:59
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The net profit would have been a lot better if Tesla didn't try to save 6 months doing common-sense things like building pilot vehicles. The significantly increased labor costs alone probably sinks them.
qingcong
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-17-2018 11:44
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Maybe not the right place to post this, but Elon's true colors are coming out.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/16/british-diver-mulls-legal-action-after-elon-musk-calls-him-pedo-guy.html

gofast182
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-17-2018 13:27
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CarPhreakD wrote:
The net profit would have been a lot better if Tesla didn't try to save 6 months doing common-sense things like building pilot vehicles. The significantly increased labor costs alone probably sinks them.

And they still went to market with a sub-par product that is only now, after months of quality fixes and refinements, finally getting the good reviews promised from day 1.

Power Of Dreams
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-17-2018 18:22
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qingcong wrote:
Maybe not the right place to post this, but Elon's true colors are coming out.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/16/british-diver-mulls-legal-action-after-elon-musk-calls-him-pedo-guy.html



I'd sue too. You'd have thought one of the smartest guys in the universe would be able to insult someone else without getting into libel and slander.

Elon has showed how hard it is to make cars and the challenges that companies that don't usually make cars or transportation-related products (I'd love to own a Boeing or Yamaha car though) encounter. Hell, I'd buy a FCA product over a Model 3 tent car.

TonyEX
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-17-2018 18:48
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gofast182 wrote:
CarPhreakD wrote:
The net profit would have been a lot better if Tesla didn't try to save 6 months doing common-sense things like building pilot vehicles. The significantly increased labor costs alone probably sinks them.

And they still went to market with a sub-par product that is only now, after months of quality fixes and refinements, finally getting the good reviews promised from day 1.



The ex German car owners that are picking these Teslas don't know any better. They think that the Tesla is a paragon of engineering and manufacturing excellence.

In reality, what I can't understand, is why Acura and Lexus don't just jump on the bandwagon. When you look at a Tesla, you see that they're very simple cars, the Model 3 doesn't even have a dash!

I figure that something like the new Insight and the current TLX could be made into luxo BEVs for not much money. It'd be a matter of taking stuff out.

qingcong
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-18-2018 09:44
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Power Of Dreams wrote:


I'd sue too. You'd have thought one of the smartest guys in the universe would be able to insult someone else without getting into libel and slander.




Man, this brings up another point, while I'm sure Elon is definitely a smart guy, it's not smarts that defines him. He didn't design and build the Model S and Space X rockets himself. He hires the top engineers from schools like Stanford and the rest of the country to design these things.

CarPhreakD
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-19-2018 09:19
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The same could be said of many founders/CEOs though. The important thing that he brings to the table is "vision" (of the company and its products), knowing who to hire to make that vision a reality... and money. Musk didn't really start Tesla- that was Martin Eberhard.

Gotta think that Batman quote about living long enough to become the villain is relevant here though. You'd think with so much goodwill that he wouldn't have descended into his recent presidential-like spree of overtweeting and meltdowns (in fact you can say there are many similarities between the two). I don't get it.

qingcong
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 07-19-2018 17:41
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CarPhreakD wrote:
The same could be said of many founders/CEOs though. The important thing that he brings to the table is "vision" (of the company and its products), knowing who to hire to make that vision a reality... and money. Musk didn't really start Tesla- that was Martin Eberhard.

Gotta think that Batman quote about living long enough to become the villain is relevant here though. You'd think with so much goodwill that he wouldn't have descended into his recent presidential-like spree of overtweeting and meltdowns (in fact you can say there are many similarities between the two). I don't get it.




As a point of reference, Bill Gates is a founder/CEO who is a certifiable wiz. He did the leg work and invented something new. Musk, I'm sure he is smart, but what he achieved is different than what Bill Gates achieved. Musk is an innovator, not an inventor.

As far as Musks' vision, I'm weary of what that is, if he even has a true vision, and if he does have a vision, whether or not we want him pushing that vision on our world.

DCR
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 08-09-2018 11:52
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These are patient people, or something else.

Either way, I think the way these cars are built will be the ultimate killer, which only gets worse the more you sell.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/car-is-dead.125112/

Dren
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 08-09-2018 12:35
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LMFAO, I read the entire thread and laughed the most at this post:

Update on my vehicle: still in shop waiting for electronic fuse assembly

However, yesterday the Model S loaner they gave me did the same thing and needed to be towed.

I came back to the vehicle after it had been sitting all day and would not unlock as I approached the vehicle. I unlocked using the key fob however both screen on the car would not turn on. Called Tesla roadside and they were unable to do anything over the phone. Tow driver arrived and jumped the 12V battery which got the two screen to turn on however same errors as my Model 3, "Car Needs Service" "Cannot maintain vehicle power."

I am now on my second loaner car (Model S 75D) and fingers crossed I don't have any more issues.

Very strange that within the past 2 days both my Model 3 and Model S loaner had same problem.

DCR
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 08-09-2018 13:09
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You know things aren't going well when you have to get a loaner for your loaner.
DCR
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 08-09-2018 13:27
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Also, accident?

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-rear-ended-lets-see-how-long-this-takes.123177/

Ugh. Think I'll have to buckle in for the long long haul..
Called the body shop and confirmed they were still waiting on the quarter panel and bumper.... and when asked how long it would take after parts arrive he wouldn't commit but he though 3-4 weeks or more.

After this I called the Tesla body shop support line. This is where I got the grim news. They confirmed there are four outstanding components on the order for my car:
Trunk side trim - ETA Tuesday to warehouse, should ship to body shop by end of next week
Rear bumper / upper cover - ETA Tuesday to warehouse, should ship to body shop by end of next week
Rear body panel - In transit to body shop
Rear quarter panel - Expected at Tesla warehouse September 6th... Then still need to ship to body shop.

So - as looks today:
6/28 - arrived at body shop
guessing 9/10 for all parts at body shop
+ minimum of 3 week for body shop -- Maybe done by October 1st... ?

If that's the case it looks like it will take ~96 days between the accident (6/27) and when it looks like I may get my car back.

99SI
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 08-09-2018 14:59
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At least the battery didn't explode or catch fire!
CarPhreakD
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 08-10-2018 10:13
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If it's not structural damage I would rather they give me the car back to drive. It's not like the crash damage distracts from the model 3's... looks

Fishbulb
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Re: Munro says Model 3 has >30% gross margin    (Score: 1, Normal) 08-10-2018 10:54
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DCR wrote:
You know things aren't going well when you have to get a loaner for your loaner.


If we're applying individual experiences to an entire brand, the same thing happened with my buddy's new porsche.


 
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