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TOV Forums > Today's Reading Links > > Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3

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TonyEX
Profile for TonyEX
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-05-2018 16:06
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notyper wrote:
DCR wrote:
TonyEX wrote:
I can refill my Clarity in ten minutes flat.

Assuming no Toyota drivers are trying to figure how to use the pump and holding up the line.



You couldn't figure out the pump and a Hyundai driver had to show you how.



Oh Chasquido!



I followed a Mirai with Cal Trans stickers on it.

The driver could not even figure out how to select the fuel, H35 or H70? Then, she couldn't figure out which pump to use. At the end, she couldn't get the machine to shut off properly so it would give her a receipt. So she took a picture of the sale price and drove off.

Incredible.

I had to reseat the refueling barrel in place, otherwise it won't allow the sale to complete.

...

I mean, the first time I tried to use the new inline barrel pump, it was hard because you really have to hold it straight in line for it to lock. It's not like the originals which were similar to a gas pump. Any angle, any english twist in your wrist and the barrel won't engage with the car.

I'd like to see you Einsteins give that one a try.


KaizenDo
Profile for KaizenDo
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-05-2018 17:16
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
KaizenDo wrote:
The thing is, regenerative energy sources are not available 24/7. In peak times of BEV recharing evening to morning the least amount of renewables are produced and have to be complemented by fossil or nuclear fuel. Therfore BEVs are just as "dirty" as gasoline vehicles, there is no difference.

Now people come and say, you should be able to save energy produced in daytime. How are you going to do that? There is no easy way. The two most direct options

1.) Save regenerative electricity as hydrogen. That's what the Japanese are doing. Transfer efficiency isn't so high, but gas tanks are dirt chep

2.) Save regenerative electricity in batteries. That's what Elon and his brainwashed zealot crowd is preaching. They babble about hydrogen being inefficient and completely ignor the fact that batteries easily cost more than 10 times per kWh than hydrogen tanks.



And as I've pointed out in past debates, you make a really poor argument, because hydrogen tanks by themselves don't do anything.

You have to look at total system cost.

The hydrogen tank requires the addition of (1) electrolyzer (2) compressor(s), (3) fuel cell (4) inverter (5) control electronics, to actually function as a practical power storage and delivery system.

A Tesla PowerWall is a fully integrated solution. PowerPacks for industrial storage are nearly fully integrated.

If industrial battery storage was truly an order of magnitude (10x) greater than the cost of H2 storage at the system level, Tesla Energy would not have any customers.

Yet, they are winning customers from Australia to Puerto Rico.



As pointed out by owe and various others on this forum, you've had too much kool aid and got completely lost into the Tesla bullshit propaganda - beyond any help or cure, just like Tesla Energy customers.

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-05-2018 18:23
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KaizenDo wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
KaizenDo wrote:
The thing is, regenerative energy sources are not available 24/7. In peak times of BEV recharing evening to morning the least amount of renewables are produced and have to be complemented by fossil or nuclear fuel. Therfore BEVs are just as "dirty" as gasoline vehicles, there is no difference.

Now people come and say, you should be able to save energy produced in daytime. How are you going to do that? There is no easy way. The two most direct options

1.) Save regenerative electricity as hydrogen. That's what the Japanese are doing. Transfer efficiency isn't so high, but gas tanks are dirt chep

2.) Save regenerative electricity in batteries. That's what Elon and his brainwashed zealot crowd is preaching. They babble about hydrogen being inefficient and completely ignor the fact that batteries easily cost more than 10 times per kWh than hydrogen tanks.



And as I've pointed out in past debates, you make a really poor argument, because hydrogen tanks by themselves don't do anything.

You have to look at total system cost.

The hydrogen tank requires the addition of (1) electrolyzer (2) compressor(s), (3) fuel cell (4) inverter (5) control electronics, to actually function as a practical power storage and delivery system.

A Tesla PowerWall is a fully integrated solution. PowerPacks for industrial storage are nearly fully integrated.

If industrial battery storage was truly an order of magnitude (10x) greater than the cost of H2 storage at the system level, Tesla Energy would not have any customers.

Yet, they are winning customers from Australia to Puerto Rico.



As pointed out by owe and various others on this forum, you've had too much kool aid and got completely lost into the Tesla bullshit propaganda - beyond any help or cure, just like Tesla Energy customers.


If posting a juvenile animated gif is the best you can do, that says it all about you and your argument: a troll, or maybe an idiot, writing total garbage.

I actually did the cost breakdown in this thread:

https://vtec.net/forums/one-message?message_id=1300544&page_number=1&. As of Dec. 2016, it cost over $30,000 for just the electrolyzer and ONE 5 kW fuel cell.

And you'd still need to add the cost of the hydrogen tank, compression system, inverter, and electronic controls.

By comparison, a Tesla Powerwall 2 costs just $5,900 (has fully integrated inverter and control systems) with a rated continuous output of 5 kW on 13.5 kWh capacity, and can be linked into an array of up to 10 units, for up to 135 kWh capacity and 50 kW sustained power.

Try coming up with an actual technical or specific cost argument instead. Then people might actually respect you.

KaizenDo
Profile for KaizenDo
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-06-2018 18:21
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
If posting a juvenile animated gif is the best you can do, that says it all about you and your argument: a troll, or maybe an idiot, writing total garbage.

I actually did the cost breakdown in this thread:

https://vtec.net/forums/one-message?message_id=1300544&page_number=1&. As of Dec. 2016, it cost over $30,000 for just the electrolyzer and ONE 5 kW fuel cell.

And you'd still need to add the cost of the hydrogen tank, compression system, inverter, and electronic controls.

By comparison, a Tesla Powerwall 2 costs just $5,900 (has fully integrated inverter and control systems) with a rated continuous output of 5 kW on 13.5 kWh capacity, and can be linked into an array of up to 10 units, for up to 135 kWh capacity and 50 kW sustained power.

Try coming up with an actual technical or specific cost argument instead. Then people might actually respect you.


For your kind, even juvenile animated gifs are too much effort to do. In countless examples you showed, that you only play to your agenda and ignore anyhting which speaks against it. Tesla fanboi par excellence, like a frantic Hitler-youth who can't wait for his idol to jump on stage and hold a speech.

How about you stick your powerwalll up your backside, along with the book of Elon and get a life to gather some self respect?

superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-06-2018 19:45
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KaizenDo wrote:

How about you stick your powerwalll up your backside, along with the book of Elon and get a life to gather some self respect?


Ouch!

owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-07-2018 00:47
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
owequitit wrote:
Looks like more propaganda to me:

http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1062670

25K Model S last quarter, which in fact illustrates that demand has NOT increased.


The current Model S and X combined assembly line, completed at the end of 2016, has a throughput of roughly 2000 units/week. Tesla has stated in the past that the line could push 2500 units/week, but not on a sustainable basis, because there would be no time for necessary maintenance on equipment.

Without building a parallel S/X line, or an entirely new high throughput line, S/X production will not increase. Demand is immaterial to this constraint.



It also can't be a capacity issue as you state because they are managing to swiftly and significantly increase the capacity of Model 3 production. Of course, they are still several orders of magnitude below where they should be.


This is a poor argument, because Capacity to build Model 3 is not related to Capacity to build Model S/X.

* Components are different. Model 3 is built on a completely different architecture than the Model S and X. Economies of scale on the 3 won't help the S and X.
(1) Body construction is different (The 3 uses an Aluminum/Steel hybrid unibody, while the S and X are almost 100% Aluminum), which requires different attachment processes as far as welding, riveting, and adhesives.
(2) Model 3's battery uses 2170 form factor cells, while the S/X uses 18650 form factor cells. As a consequence, the modules and packs are different and cannot be interchanged.
(3) Model 3 uses different computer systems and a vastly simplified wiring architecture.


* Model 3 was designed from the ground up to be a much simpler car. Tesla cannot use production processes used to build Model 3, and directly apply them to making more Model S/X. If Tesla wanted to build a higher volume of S/X, I think they would have to both (a) Redesign the S/X to make them far less complicated to manufacture and (b) Redesign the production line to accommodate the new design.


* Money. Tesla doesn't have infinite capital. They used their resources to build the Model 3 production infrastructure, rather than expanding or reworking the S/X line.



Now, you want to rail on me for stating things that are "demonstrably false" and in this case it doesn't appear to have anything to do with capacity as this post was made almost 1 year ago to the day.


In this case, your understanding of the product and the manufacturing of the product, is poor, leading you to a faulty conclusion.

This is more a problem of incomplete information, rather than any piece of information being false.



Hey! Another insult that you don't make... Got it. I am sure that was me insulting you again.

Anyway:

Maybe I just look into it a little bit deeper, starting with your own link:

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/weekly-production-capacity-tesla-factory-fremont-will-be-least-2500-after-upgrade-body

Weekly production capacity at the Tesla Factory in Fremont will be at least 2,500 after the upgrade of the Body Line in Q1 2015.
Submitted by Benz on August 1, 2014
After having listened to Elon Musk, JB Straubel and Deepak Ahuja on the Conference Call yesterday, I have to assume/conclude the following:

There is only one Assembly line, and this Assembly Line has now been upgraded (more efficient, more automation, resulting in a higher production capacity per week). Production will start again on August 4th, 2014. The Body Line will be upgraded in Q1 2015.

In reply to Ben Kallo with Robert W. Baird: "Regarding the production (capacity) increase to a level of 100,000 unit a year, by the end of next year. Some other step to get you to that level?"

Elon Musk: "Well, there is a big step thatīs expected to occur in Q1 next year (2015). Which is the bring up of the S/X Body Line. So, what we did in the past two weeks is the Assembly Line, where itīs basically that the bits get put together. But then the Body Line is where the body itself is welded and bonded together, where in fact the core skeleton of the car is created ..... We are gonna bring the Body Line up in parrallel with the current Line. Unlike this case with the Assembly (Line), we didnīt have two complete Assembly Lines, we had to stop and retool. In the case of the new S/X Body Line, which is a line that has been designed to be capable of 2,500 units a week, maybe more than that. Conservatively 2,500 units a week. At a lower cost point. We should be able to do that in parrallel (Model S + Model X). Another really big upgrade is the Paint Shop. There are a few cases where advanced CapEx spending makes sense even though it's gonna pay of in two to three years. But it's such a big improvement that you kinda wanna do it, even at a high discount rate. Our Paint Shop is being upgraded and it's gonna be the most advanced Automotive Paint Shop in the world. It's expensive to do that."

My question now is: "Can we assume/conclude that the Tesla Fremont Factory will have a production capacity of at least 2,500 cars a week (Model S + Model X), by the end of Q1 2015?


Absolutely ZERO mention of the 2500 units per week not being sustainable.

Also, I am a dummy, but according to my math:

2500 units/week x 52= 130,000 units/year.

*Obviously, that is a theoretical maximum.

**Obviously, every machine needs maintenance and every complex machine breaks outside of its intended maintenance schedule. You seem to talk down to me as though I have no idea what a complex machine looks like and have no fathom of the fact they need maintenance, but I digress...

So, according to the math, if Musk says capacity is 2500 per week, but total output is actually 100,000 then it would appear that they are having roughly 30% downtime on their line, so I did some digging. The problem is that manufacturers keep data like that very close to the cuff because a small competitive advantage like a slightly more efficient assembly process can mean huge $$. According to auto industry estimates, downtime costs them about $22K per minute.

https://www.manufacturing.net/article/2006/03/22000-minute-manufacturing-problem

I read a number of scholarly papers that pegged the average downtime for manufacturing at between 5 and 20% depending. My guess would be that due to complexity, the auto industry is probably on the higher end of that, but it is just a guess since it is probably not well publicized. Perhaps someone who works in manufacturing on this site can provide more info.

Here is Musk stating that he is going to school Toyota on lean manufacturing, even though he currently appears to be around 50% above average downtime in relation to what I was able to substantiate:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2018/02/16/tesla-thinks-it-will-school-toyota-on-lean-manufacturing-fixing-model-3-launch-would-be-a-start/#2ec7653a4c74

Here is a June 1 article on multiple paint shop fires due to lack of maintenance on equipment:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-workers-factory-paint-shop-163000104.html

Supposed 40% scrap or rework rate at the "Gigafactory" and relative efficiency metrics of the Telsa factory:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/05/tesla-factories-have-struggled-with-scrap-production-rate-reports.html

The fresh investigative reports describe: a high level of waste of raw materials and rework required on parts made at the Tesla Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada; serious paint shop fires and a bloated workforce, allegedly twice the size of what's required to build its cars, in Fremont, California.

Business Insider reported that, based on internal documents it reviewed, Tesla was scrapping or reworking around 40 percent of the raw materials and parts built at its Gigafactory as recently as April, an unusually high rate compared to other automakers.

That number is in line with an earlier report from CNBC where Tesla employees estimated 40 percent of the parts received at or made in its Fremont factory also required rework or repairs.


The Daily Beast report also says that Tesla's Fremont plant had "more than 10,000 factory employees making about 100,000 cars last year," which equates to a production rate of just 10 vehicles per employee annually. The same factory churned out 26 vehicles per empoloyee at the low end and up to 74 vehicles per employee when it was operated as a joint venture between General Motors and Toyota, according to Automotive News.


That is less than half the efficiency when Toyota ran it, so I am skeptical of any claims that Tesla is anywhere near as efficient as a major automaker. Even assuming he is running fewer lines, at a peak of 74 cars per employee, he would have to push out over 7x the volume as 2017.

Who cares?

I keep hearing that supply is production constrained to the 100K units per year, but that there is far more demand:

https://electrek.co/2018/02/21/tesla-delay-model-s-x-orders-demand-backlog/

But, in their latest delivery report for Q1:

http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1062670

24,728 Model S/X, which is pretty much in line with the 100K limit for that line. So no problem there.

But I have seen other claims that sales demand is actually down, with this link claiming it was down 4-5% in the first 9 months of 2017:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4060443-tesla-model-s-x-demand-u-s-remains-healthy

And this link claiming they were down 8% in 2017 (I can't find a way to verify those numbers:

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-q4-2017-premium-large-segment/#more-48626

I also notice that BOTH sources compared sales in the "large premium" segment.

I found that curious as the Model S is very similar dimensionally to the mid-sized luxury cars:

https://www.autotrader.com/car-news/tesla-model-s-absolutely-not-best-selling-luxury-s-258097

* I don't really care for the author, but he poses some very plausible points.

https://www.bmwusa.com/vehicles/5-series/sedan/m550i-xdrive-sedan/specifications.html

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-bmw-m550i-xdrive-first-drive-review

*I hate BMW's site because they don't have all of the specs on there.

https://www.tesla.com/support/model-s-specifications

But here is the bottom line:

There is really no way to prove if Tesla is fleecing production rates to keep the line full, or if they are holding cars in inventory, etc.

I also seriously question any assertions that Tesla's downtimes are completely normal and in line with the rest of the industry (and I never said there was no downtime in manufacturing, you simply made that up to try and further discredit me with something I didn't actually say).

Further, I am pretty sure when Honda or Toyota talk about a plant's capacities, the assumption and measurement of downtime is included, rather than saying "conservatively 2500 per week" and then saying 100K annually.

Finally, I have less of an issue with 100K units per year and more issue with Musk's claims that A) The line was "conservatively" capable of 2500 units a week (IMO, downtimes should be included in estimates) and B) that he was going to show Toyota how it was done. It's just hard to take someone seriously under those conditions.

The point you are still missing, while attacking everyone else, is that it has less to do with Tesla's success and more to do with Musk's total douchebaggery and the blind allegiance of his minions. Honestly, for me, its the blind allegiance and outright denial. Musk has made it further than a lot of other people in the industry.

Here is another updated timeline, so we will see how it pans out:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2018/06/05/musk-says-tesla-close-hitting-model-3-production-targets/674502002/

superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-07-2018 09:17
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I just wonder how many of the original orders for the non existent $35,000 model have been canceled so far?

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-hints-at-when-base-model-3-will-arrive-2018-5


superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-07-2018 09:31
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The Model 3 has the most bizarre and least user friendly dashboard (having to look away while driving to use the touchscreen for so much) of any car that I can recall.
:)

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-07-2018 19:25
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owequitit wrote:
Anyway:

Maybe I just look into it a little bit deeper, starting with your own link:

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/weekly-production-capacity-tesla-factory-fremont-will-be-least-2500-after-upgrade-body

Weekly production capacity at the Tesla Factory in Fremont will be at least 2,500 after the upgrade of the Body Line in Q1 2015.
Submitted by Benz on August 1, 2014
After having listened to Elon Musk, JB Straubel and Deepak Ahuja on the Conference Call yesterday, I have to assume/conclude the following:

There is only one Assembly line, and this Assembly Line has now been upgraded (more efficient, more automation, resulting in a higher production capacity per week). Production will start again on August 4th, 2014. The Body Line will be upgraded in Q1 2015.

In reply to Ben Kallo with Robert W. Baird: "Regarding the production (capacity) increase to a level of 100,000 unit a year, by the end of next year. Some other step to get you to that level?"

Elon Musk: "Well, there is a big step thatīs expected to occur in Q1 next year (2015). Which is the bring up of the S/X Body Line. So, what we did in the past two weeks is the Assembly Line, where itīs basically that the bits get put together. But then the Body Line is where the body itself is welded and bonded together, where in fact the core skeleton of the car is created ..... We are gonna bring the Body Line up in parrallel with the current Line. Unlike this case with the Assembly (Line), we didnīt have two complete Assembly Lines, we had to stop and retool. In the case of the new S/X Body Line, which is a line that has been designed to be capable of 2,500 units a week, maybe more than that. Conservatively 2,500 units a week. At a lower cost point. We should be able to do that in parrallel (Model S + Model X). Another really big upgrade is the Paint Shop. There are a few cases where advanced CapEx spending makes sense even though it's gonna pay of in two to three years. But it's such a big improvement that you kinda wanna do it, even at a high discount rate. Our Paint Shop is being upgraded and it's gonna be the most advanced Automotive Paint Shop in the world. It's expensive to do that."

My question now is: "Can we assume/conclude that the Tesla Fremont Factory will have a production capacity of at least 2,500 cars a week (Model S + Model X), by the end of Q1 2015?


Absolutely ZERO mention of the 2500 units per week not being sustainable.

Also, I am a dummy, but according to my math:

2500 units/week x 52= 130,000 units/year.

*Obviously, that is a theoretical maximum.

**Obviously, every machine needs maintenance and every complex machine breaks outside of its intended maintenance schedule. You seem to talk down to me as though I have no idea what a complex machine looks like and have no fathom of the fact they need maintenance, but I digress...

So, according to the math, if Musk says capacity is 2500 per week, but total output is actually 100,000 then it would appear that they are having roughly 30% downtime on their line, so I did some digging. The problem is that manufacturers keep data like that very close to the cuff because a small competitive advantage like a slightly more efficient assembly process can mean huge $$. According to auto industry estimates, downtime costs them about $22K per minute.


I went back and read that August 2014 post from Benz, and I want to point out a few things:

(1) The 2500 units/weeks refers to the Body Line only. Keep in mind that the Auto bodies still have to go through the Paint Shop and then General Assembly. That's why Benz (I bolded his question for clarity) asked if 2500 units/week from the Body Line meant 2500 cars/week produced. Unless each stage of the line is running at 2500/week, the throughput of the entire line will be less.

(2) Tesla completed that entire planned S/X manufacturing line that Benz refers to in Q3 2016. Pardon the Electrek link, but they provided the best overall graph for quarterly production rates: https://electrek.co/2018/01/03/tesla-model-3-delivery-record/.

As you can see, Tesla hit 25k Model S/X cars/quarter in Q3 2016, and from then through Q4 2017, maintained about that level of deliveries on average. They were somewhat below 25k/quarter for the 1st year, and then somewhat above 25k/quarter in the last 6 months of that period.

I don't believe that the production line, through 2017, could actually sustain more than 2000 completed Model S and X cars per week.

If the body line could build 2500 unibodies/week, that would allow for a burst rate of that amount, assuming availability of components and ability of workers and machinery to actually assemble completed S/X cars.




But here is the bottom line:

There is really no way to prove if Tesla is fleecing production rates to keep the line full, or if they are holding cars in inventory, etc.


This is a fair point. More fair than a flat out assertion that there is no increase in demand.




I also seriously question any assertions that Tesla's downtimes are completely normal and in line with the rest of the industry (and I never said there was no downtime in manufacturing, you simply made that up to try and further discredit me with something I didn't actually say).

Further, I am pretty sure when Honda or Toyota talk about a plant's capacities, the assumption and measurement of downtime is included, rather than saying "conservatively 2500 per week" and then saying 100K annually.

Finally, I have less of an issue with 100K units per year and more issue with Musk's claims that A) The line was "conservatively" capable of 2500 units a week (IMO, downtimes should be included in estimates) and B) that he was going to show Toyota how it was done. It's just hard to take someone seriously under those conditions.

The point you are still missing, while attacking everyone else, is that it has less to do with Tesla's success and more to do with Musk's total douchebaggery and the blind allegiance of his minions. Honestly, for me, its the blind allegiance and outright denial. Musk has made it further than a lot of other people in the industry.


Look,

(1) I stated in another thread that it was my belief that Elon Musk was not much different than Donald Trump in many respects (hyperbolic talker, troubled history with multiple women/wives, etc etc). If your opinion is that Musk is an incorrigible, irredeemable asshole, I'm not going to try to convince you otherwise. Ashlee Vance's biography of Musk, which I think is mostly credibly, portrays Musk as being ruthless, often tone deaf, and extraordinarily ambitious. However, I do think that Musk is genuine in his stated desire to make humans a multiplanetary species.


(2) I decided that I liked Tesla (and BEVs more broadly) after running the math myself on the energy efficiency numbers, and I've posted my calculations and how I arrived at my conclusions. I did not arrive at this conclusion "blindly".

Frankly, blind allegiance would have been me continuing to say that Honda and its Clarity line are better, when they just aren't, for a whole host of reasons.

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-07-2018 19:31
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superchg2 wrote:
KaizenDo wrote:

How about you stick your powerwalll up your backside, along with the book of Elon and get a life to gather some self respect?


Ouch!



If KaizenDo actually had a reasonably coherent counterargument, he would have posted one rather than write more insults.

This appear to be par for the course for KaizenDo, however. He wrote similarly stupid things in this thread: https://vtec.net/forums/one-message?message_id=1354492, and got his ass kicked by Notyper.

Part of me wonders if KaizenDo is actually another sock puppet account of the banned person 80honda/DrWhiner/NoBrainer. If that is the case, perhaps another ban is in order...

owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-08-2018 00:47
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
owequitit wrote:
Anyway:

Maybe I just look into it a little bit deeper, starting with your own link:

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/weekly-production-capacity-tesla-factory-fremont-will-be-least-2500-after-upgrade-body

Weekly production capacity at the Tesla Factory in Fremont will be at least 2,500 after the upgrade of the Body Line in Q1 2015.
Submitted by Benz on August 1, 2014
After having listened to Elon Musk, JB Straubel and Deepak Ahuja on the Conference Call yesterday, I have to assume/conclude the following:

There is only one Assembly line, and this Assembly Line has now been upgraded (more efficient, more automation, resulting in a higher production capacity per week). Production will start again on August 4th, 2014. The Body Line will be upgraded in Q1 2015.

In reply to Ben Kallo with Robert W. Baird: "Regarding the production (capacity) increase to a level of 100,000 unit a year, by the end of next year. Some other step to get you to that level?"

Elon Musk: "Well, there is a big step thatīs expected to occur in Q1 next year (2015). Which is the bring up of the S/X Body Line. So, what we did in the past two weeks is the Assembly Line, where itīs basically that the bits get put together. But then the Body Line is where the body itself is welded and bonded together, where in fact the core skeleton of the car is created ..... We are gonna bring the Body Line up in parrallel with the current Line. Unlike this case with the Assembly (Line), we didnīt have two complete Assembly Lines, we had to stop and retool. In the case of the new S/X Body Line, which is a line that has been designed to be capable of 2,500 units a week, maybe more than that. Conservatively 2,500 units a week. At a lower cost point. We should be able to do that in parrallel (Model S + Model X). Another really big upgrade is the Paint Shop. There are a few cases where advanced CapEx spending makes sense even though it's gonna pay of in two to three years. But it's such a big improvement that you kinda wanna do it, even at a high discount rate. Our Paint Shop is being upgraded and it's gonna be the most advanced Automotive Paint Shop in the world. It's expensive to do that."

My question now is: "Can we assume/conclude that the Tesla Fremont Factory will have a production capacity of at least 2,500 cars a week (Model S + Model X), by the end of Q1 2015?


Absolutely ZERO mention of the 2500 units per week not being sustainable.

Also, I am a dummy, but according to my math:

2500 units/week x 52= 130,000 units/year.

*Obviously, that is a theoretical maximum.

**Obviously, every machine needs maintenance and every complex machine breaks outside of its intended maintenance schedule. You seem to talk down to me as though I have no idea what a complex machine looks like and have no fathom of the fact they need maintenance, but I digress...

So, according to the math, if Musk says capacity is 2500 per week, but total output is actually 100,000 then it would appear that they are having roughly 30% downtime on their line, so I did some digging. The problem is that manufacturers keep data like that very close to the cuff because a small competitive advantage like a slightly more efficient assembly process can mean huge $$. According to auto industry estimates, downtime costs them about $22K per minute.


I went back and read that August 2014 post from Benz, and I want to point out a few things:

(1) The 2500 units/weeks refers to the Body Line only. Keep in mind that the Auto bodies still have to go through the Paint Shop and then General Assembly. That's why Benz (I bolded his question for clarity) asked if 2500 units/week from the Body Line meant 2500 cars/week produced. Unless each stage of the line is running at 2500/week, the throughput of the entire line will be less.

(2) Tesla completed that entire planned S/X manufacturing line that Benz refers to in Q3 2016. Pardon the Electrek link, but they provided the best overall graph for quarterly production rates: https://electrek.co/2018/01/03/tesla-model-3-delivery-record/.

As you can see, Tesla hit 25k Model S/X cars/quarter in Q3 2016, and from then through Q4 2017, maintained about that level of deliveries on average. They were somewhat below 25k/quarter for the 1st year, and then somewhat above 25k/quarter in the last 6 months of that period.

I don't believe that the production line, through 2017, could actually sustain more than 2000 completed Model S and X cars per week.

If the body line could build 2500 unibodies/week, that would allow for a burst rate of that amount, assuming availability of components and ability of workers and machinery to actually assemble completed S/X cars.




But here is the bottom line:

There is really no way to prove if Tesla is fleecing production rates to keep the line full, or if they are holding cars in inventory, etc.


This is a fair point. More fair than a flat out assertion that there is no increase in demand.




I also seriously question any assertions that Tesla's downtimes are completely normal and in line with the rest of the industry (and I never said there was no downtime in manufacturing, you simply made that up to try and further discredit me with something I didn't actually say).

Further, I am pretty sure when Honda or Toyota talk about a plant's capacities, the assumption and measurement of downtime is included, rather than saying "conservatively 2500 per week" and then saying 100K annually.

Finally, I have less of an issue with 100K units per year and more issue with Musk's claims that A) The line was "conservatively" capable of 2500 units a week (IMO, downtimes should be included in estimates) and B) that he was going to show Toyota how it was done. It's just hard to take someone seriously under those conditions.

The point you are still missing, while attacking everyone else, is that it has less to do with Tesla's success and more to do with Musk's total douchebaggery and the blind allegiance of his minions. Honestly, for me, its the blind allegiance and outright denial. Musk has made it further than a lot of other people in the industry.


Look,

(1) I stated in another thread that it was my belief that Elon Musk was not much different than Donald Trump in many respects (hyperbolic talker, troubled history with multiple women/wives, etc etc). If your opinion is that Musk is an incorrigible, irredeemable asshole, I'm not going to try to convince you otherwise. Ashlee Vance's biography of Musk, which I think is mostly credibly, portrays Musk as being ruthless, often tone deaf, and extraordinarily ambitious. However, I do think that Musk is genuine in his stated desire to make humans a multiplanetary species.


(2) I decided that I liked Tesla (and BEVs more broadly) after running the math myself on the energy efficiency numbers, and I've posted my calculations and how I arrived at my conclusions. I did not arrive at this conclusion "blindly".

Frankly, blind allegiance would have been me continuing to say that Honda and its Clarity line are better, when they just aren't, for a whole host of reasons.



I would take the Clarity every day of the week and twice on Sunday, even though it is BY FAR one of the ugliest cars I have ever seen. Why? It is actually truly sustainable for MACROeconomic transport in the future. But you can say what you want. Fuel Cell development has proven extremely rapid. Moreso, in fact, than battery technology. But I digress.

Musk is a tool and his legions of fanboys and religious zealots are tools.

You can downplay your position all you want, but the reality is that Musk has largely failed to credibly deliver on anything he said he would in any kind of credible timeframe and he has done it again and again. Boyhood visions be damned. I have absolutely no problem with someone wanting to change the world or having vision. A lot of my favorite leaders had visions that people thought were "crazy" and couldn't be done. The difference though was that they didn't run around telling everyone how stupid and inferior they were while simultaneously falling flat on their face. Like I have said repeatedly. It has less to do with the vision and more to do with the way he goes about it. He just can't seem to put his money where his mouth is, so to speak.

And with that, I will leave this here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

A tracker that is turning out to be fairly accurate, probably to the point Tesla won't acknowledge it (they won't).

If the 2,560 number is to be believed, then he has about 3 more weeks to DOUBLE production. Considering they were at ~2,000/week production several months ago, I just don't see it happening.

And remember, the production promise with the Model 3 has never been about twisted fluff such as "conservatively 2500 per week" (which really means only 2000 per week on average). It was originally 10,000 per week (not sometimes) by the end of 2017. Then it was 5,000. Now it is 5,000 by June 30. It will be interesting to watch.

Here is my prediction:

They will hit roughly 3,000 per week average by the end of June and will try to spin it as being due to production capacity and saying that they never intended it to be EVERY week (or at least their fans will).

They will eventually get to a point where they are making money, but probably not before they are required to borrow more capital.

Then, due to the delay in their financial reality, they will have to delay subsequent product launches because their bonds start to come due in early 2019 (to the tune of approximately $1.8 Billion) with another several billion due by 2023.

At this point, it is literally a race against time.

superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-08-2018 08:53
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
superchg2 wrote:
KaizenDo wrote:

How about you stick your powerwalll up your backside, along with the book of Elon and get a life to gather some self respect?


Ouch!



If KaizenDo actually had a reasonably coherent counterargument, he would have posted one rather than write more insults.

This appear to be par for the course for KaizenDo, however. He wrote similarly stupid things in this thread: https://vtec.net/forums/one-message?message_id=1354492, and got his ass kicked by Notyper.

Part of me wonders if KaizenDo is actually another sock puppet account of the banned person 80honda/DrWhiner/NoBrainer. If that is the case, perhaps another ban is in order...


Are you saying that KaizenDo is reincarnation?

KaizenDo
Profile for KaizenDo
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-08-2018 18:22
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
superchg2 wrote:
KaizenDo wrote:

How about you stick your powerwalll up your backside, along with the book of Elon and get a life to gather some self respect?


Ouch!



If KaizenDo actually had a reasonably coherent counterargument, he would have posted one rather than write more insults.

This appear to be par for the course for KaizenDo, however. He wrote similarly stupid things in this thread: https://vtec.net/forums/one-message?message_id=1354492, and got his ass kicked by Notyper.

Part of me wonders if KaizenDo is actually another sock puppet account of the banned person 80honda/DrWhiner/NoBrainer. If that is the case, perhaps another ban is in order...



Seems like someone pooped in your KoolAid, cause the shit is strong in that one.

Look buddy, we know that you have absolutely no life, and crave for Elons power stick to be pushed up your docking bay. But geez, leave me out of your sick phanatsies and go lick a power outlet to get your kicks.

By the way, I wonder if Tesla fanbois get banned, do they also self ignite like the unfinished prototypes they worship? Maybe we will see.

KaizenDo
Profile for KaizenDo
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-08-2018 18:25
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superchg2 wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
superchg2 wrote:
KaizenDo wrote:

How about you stick your powerwalll up your backside, along with the book of Elon and get a life to gather some self respect?


Ouch!



If KaizenDo actually had a reasonably coherent counterargument, he would have posted one rather than write more insults.

This appear to be par for the course for KaizenDo, however. He wrote similarly stupid things in this thread: https://vtec.net/forums/one-message?message_id=1354492, and got his ass kicked by Notyper.

Part of me wonders if KaizenDo is actually another sock puppet account of the banned person 80honda/DrWhiner/NoBrainer. If that is the case, perhaps another ban is in order...


Are you saying that KaizenDo is reincarnation?



You should rather ask Chernobyl Boy what car does he drive. ;)

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-09-2018 09:33
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owequitit wrote:
Musk is a tool and his legions of fanboys and religious zealots are
tools.

The difference though was that they didn't run around telling everyone how stupid and inferior they were while simultaneously falling flat on their face.

Like I have said repeatedly. It has less to do with the vision and more to do with the way he goes about it.


Ok, leaving aside prior disputes,

What specific instances are you referring to when you say that Elon Musk told everyone else (other industry players) that they were "stupid and inferior"?

With regards to the "falling flat on their face" part, I don't see this as a bad thing. Failing is a part of any business enterprise. Much of the technology industry today exists because people failed at something and learned a lot from those failures. This is the only way people learn and evolve. Soichiro Honda is often quoted as having said: "Success is 99% failure", although I don't know if he actually did say this.

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-09-2018 09:40
Reply to This Message Attach Quote to Reply
KaizenDo wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
superchg2 wrote:
KaizenDo wrote:

How about you stick your powerwalll up your backside, along with the book of Elon and get a life to gather some self respect?


Ouch!



If KaizenDo actually had a reasonably coherent counterargument, he would have posted one rather than write more insults.

This appear to be par for the course for KaizenDo, however. He wrote similarly stupid things in this thread: https://vtec.net/forums/one-message?message_id=1354492, and got his ass kicked by Notyper.

Part of me wonders if KaizenDo is actually another sock puppet account of the banned person 80honda/DrWhiner/NoBrainer. If that is the case, perhaps another ban is in order...



Seems like someone pooped in your KoolAid, cause the shit is strong in that one.

Look buddy, we know that you have absolutely no life, and crave for Elons power stick to be pushed up your docking bay. But geez, leave me out of your sick phanatsies and go lick a power outlet to get your kicks.

By the way, I wonder if Tesla fanbois get banned, do they also self ignite like the unfinished prototypes they worship? Maybe we will see.




JeffX or Notyper,

I regret that things have gotten to this point, but KaizenDo's writing in his above post @ 06/08/18 18:22 is unacceptable, reprehensible, and frankly pretty disgusting.

I am therefore requesting that KaizenDo be immediately banned from ToV for trolling.

RolledaNsx
Profile for RolledaNsx
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-09-2018 11:58
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
KaizenDo wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
superchg2 wrote:
KaizenDo wrote:

How about you stick your powerwalll up your backside, along with the book of Elon and get a life to gather some self respect?


Ouch!



If KaizenDo actually had a reasonably coherent counterargument, he would have posted one rather than write more insults.

This appear to be par for the course for KaizenDo, however. He wrote similarly stupid things in this thread: https://vtec.net/forums/one-message?message_id=1354492, and got his ass kicked by Notyper.

Part of me wonders if KaizenDo is actually another sock puppet account of the banned person 80honda/DrWhiner/NoBrainer. If that is the case, perhaps another ban is in order...



Seems like someone pooped in your KoolAid, cause the shit is strong in that one.

Look buddy, we know that you have absolutely no life, and crave for Elons power stick to be pushed up your docking bay. But geez, leave me out of your sick phanatsies and go lick a power outlet to get your kicks.

By the way, I wonder if Tesla fanbois get banned, do they also self ignite like the unfinished prototypes they worship? Maybe we will see.




JeffX or Notyper,

I regret that things have gotten to this point, but KaizenDo's writing in his above post @ 06/08/18 18:22 is unacceptable, reprehensible, and frankly pretty disgusting.

I am therefore requesting that KaizenDo be immediately banned from ToV for trolling.



To be fair you need to be ban too.


KaizenDo
Profile for KaizenDo
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-09-2018 12:43
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I request for Chernobyl boys mom to teach her son some lesons about life.

1.) Don't start an fight if you can't take some blows yourself

2.) Just because you refuse to recognize opposing points in a discussion, doesn't mean they don't exist

3.) Elon Musk can't walk over water

4.) Which car do you drive again?

3stageD15B
Profile for 3stageD15B
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-09-2018 14:13
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Atomiclightbulb typically addresses both rational and nonsensical, substantiated and unsubstantiated claims in a logical, systematic, patient, and evidence-based manner (even the mods on this forum concede this point). So it then makes perfect sense to ban him for this. Stunning commentary Rolled. Very keen and clever insight on your part (exasperated head shake). Perhaps you think he should be banned because you disagree with his arguments.

What I see is atomiclightbulb contributing a much more cautious and moderate, evidence-based critical-thinking approached toward Tesla and electric vehicles. He even concedes that it would be incredibly risky and unwise to invest in Tesla. If anything - it has been atomiclightbulb's evidence-based comments on this forum that have led me to view Tesla and Elon Musk's approach to building electric vehicles with much suspicion, skepticism, and cautiousness. It's ironic then that this forum could be so remarkably polarized when it comes to Tesla and battery-electric vehicles in general, that he is often attacked for - wait for it - being a Tesla SUPPORTER and fan-boy. It's hard not to read this last line without laughing out loud at how ridiculous it sounds....

KaizenDo
Profile for KaizenDo
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-09-2018 14:45
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3stageD15B wrote:
Atomiclightbulb typically addresses both rational and nonsensical, substantiated and unsubstantiated claims in a logical, systematic, patient, and evidence-based manner (even the mods on this forum concede this point). So it then makes perfect sense to ban him for this. Stunning commentary Rolled. Very keen and clever insight on your part (exasperated head shake). Perhaps you think he should be banned because you disagree with his arguments.

What I see is atomiclightbulb contributing a much more cautious and moderate, evidence-based critical-thinking approached toward Tesla and electric vehicles. He even concedes that it would be incredibly risky and unwise to invest in Tesla. If anything - it has been atomiclightbulb's evidence-based comments on this forum that have led me to view Tesla and Elon Musk's approach to building electric vehicles with much suspicion, skepticism, and cautiousness. It's ironic then that this forum could be so remarkably polarized when it comes to Tesla and battery-electric vehicles in general, that he is often attacked for - wait for it - being a Tesla SUPPORTER and fan-boy. It's hard not to read this last line without laughing out loud at how ridiculous it sounds....



Have you followed any of the discussions that atomiclightbulb had with owequitit or anyone else for that matter on this forum? In all of his pseudo-rational discussions he followed the same behaviour. Making all kinds of pro tesla-claims and ignoring or forgetting any argument which doesn't fit into his Teslavision.

All discussions with that guy ended the same way. You can see the zealot behind the mask which is showing cracks by now.

Last but not least, not only on TOV Tesla is polarized between peopel in doubt and it's zealots. Teslas grand wizard Elon Musk jumps on the stage, promises people the blue from the sky and trolling the competition (fool cell) while all he got up the sleeve is partly untested technology, questionable energy storages that burst into flames and lagging production lines. All that is financed from other peoples money. A healthy portion of doubt and common sense is what makes the difference between an car forum user and an Tesla zealot it seems.

superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-09-2018 23:21
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
KaizenDo wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
superchg2 wrote:
KaizenDo wrote:

How about you stick your powerwalll up your backside, along with the book of Elon and get a life to gather some self respect?


Ouch!



If KaizenDo actually had a reasonably coherent counterargument, he would have posted one rather than write more insults.

This appear to be par for the course for KaizenDo, however. He wrote similarly stupid things in this thread: https://vtec.net/forums/one-message?message_id=1354492, and got his ass kicked by Notyper.

Part of me wonders if KaizenDo is actually another sock puppet account of the banned person 80honda/DrWhiner/NoBrainer. If that is the case, perhaps another ban is in order...



Seems like someone pooped in your KoolAid, cause the shit is strong in that one.

Look buddy, we know that you have absolutely no life, and crave for Elons power stick to be pushed up your docking bay. But geez, leave me out of your sick phanatsies and go lick a power outlet to get your kicks.

By the way, I wonder if Tesla fanbois get banned, do they also self ignite like the unfinished prototypes they worship? Maybe we will see.




JeffX or Notyper,

I regret that things have gotten to this point, but KaizenDo's writing in his above post @ 06/08/18 18:22 is unacceptable, reprehensible, and frankly pretty disgusting.

I am therefore requesting that KaizenDo be immediately banned from ToV for trolling.


I would not like for any of the TOV regulars to be banned.
If he makes you mad, just go take a walk.
And don't play in his neighborhood.
:)

owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-10-2018 01:16
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
owequitit wrote:
Musk is a tool and his legions of fanboys and religious zealots are
tools.

The difference though was that they didn't run around telling everyone how stupid and inferior they were while simultaneously falling flat on their face.

Like I have said repeatedly. It has less to do with the vision and more to do with the way he goes about it.


Ok, leaving aside prior disputes,

What specific instances are you referring to when you say that Elon Musk told everyone else (other industry players) that they were "stupid and inferior"?

With regards to the "falling flat on their face" part, I don't see this as a bad thing. Failing is a part of any business enterprise. Much of the technology industry today exists because people failed at something and learned a lot from those failures. This is the only way people learn and evolve. Soichiro Honda is often quoted as having said: "Success is 99% failure", although I don't know if he actually did say this.



It was pretty much linked in the post I said it in, and it has been implied in many of his statements in the past. When I care enough to go back around in circles with you and give you fodder for propaganda invention, I will compile a list and post it here.


atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-10-2018 08:10
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owequitit wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
owequitit wrote:
Musk is a tool and his legions of fanboys and religious zealots are
tools.

The difference though was that they didn't run around telling everyone how stupid and inferior they were while simultaneously falling flat on their face.

Like I have said repeatedly. It has less to do with the vision and more to do with the way he goes about it.


Ok, leaving aside prior disputes,

What specific instances are you referring to when you say that Elon Musk told everyone else (other industry players) that they were "stupid and inferior"?

With regards to the "falling flat on their face" part, I don't see this as a bad thing. Failing is a part of any business enterprise. Much of the technology industry today exists because people failed at something and learned a lot from those failures. This is the only way people learn and evolve. Soichiro Honda is often quoted as having said: "Success is 99% failure", although I don't know if he actually did say this.



It was pretty much linked in the post I said it in, and it has been implied in many of his statements in the past. When I care enough to go back around in circles with you and give you fodder for propaganda invention, I will compile a list and post it here.





I looked at your links, and I disagree with your assertion that Musk told everyone that others were "stupid and inferior".

The Forbes article you linked quotes Elon Musk as saying:

"“The car industry thinks they're really good at manufacturing and actually they are quite good at manufacturing. But they just don't realize just how much potential there is for improvement. It's way more than they think,”

This is not as simple as calling everyone "stupid and inferior".

A person or organization can be very intelligent and competent at their work, but they can simultaneously also not see a better way to do things, or they could be stuck in a particular mindset.

I am reminded of Research in Motion, the company most famous for BlackBerry phones.

BlackBerry made excellent Smart Phones in the mid-2000's, but they were stuck in the mindset that Smart Phones were primarily a device for work email. They didn't realize that the Smart Phone had the potential to do far more than secure email or messaging. Subsequently, they got wiped out by Apple and Google because mobile computing hardware improved to the point where a mobile device could handle rich web content, high def multimedia/gaming, and multi-touch gestures. Initially, BlackBerry's leadership couldn't think past the mental barrier that a phone had to have a physical keyboard.

It's entirely possible that people at Tesla have thought up of ways to improve manufacturing speed, that other companies haven't thought of or are unwilling to try.

While Tesla has had manufacturing problems for most of its history, I see this as a byproduct of their willingness to experiment in the pursuit of improvement.

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-10-2018 08:12
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superchg2 wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:

JeffX or Notyper,

I regret that things have gotten to this point, but KaizenDo's writing in his above post @ 06/08/18 18:22 is unacceptable, reprehensible, and frankly pretty disgusting.

I am therefore requesting that KaizenDo be immediately banned from ToV for trolling.


I would not like for any of the TOV regulars to be banned.
If he makes you mad, just go take a walk.
And don't play in his neighborhood.
:)



80honda was also a regular here.

That didn't work out very well for anyone.

Brutus
Profile for Brutus
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-10-2018 08:57
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3stageD15B wrote:
Atomiclightbulb typically addresses both rational and nonsensical, substantiated and unsubstantiated claims in a logical, systematic, patient, and evidence-based manner (even the mods on this forum concede this point). So it then makes perfect sense to ban him for this. Stunning commentary Rolled. Very keen and clever insight on your part (exasperated head shake). Perhaps you think he should be banned because you disagree with his arguments.

What I see is atomiclightbulb contributing a much more cautious and moderate, evidence-based critical-thinking approached toward Tesla and electric vehicles. He even concedes that it would be incredibly risky and unwise to invest in Tesla. If anything - it has been atomiclightbulb's evidence-based comments on this forum that have led me to view Tesla and Elon Musk's approach to building electric vehicles with much suspicion, skepticism, and cautiousness. It's ironic then that this forum could be so remarkably polarized when it comes to Tesla and battery-electric vehicles in general, that he is often attacked for - wait for it - being a Tesla SUPPORTER and fan-boy. It's hard not to read this last line without laughing out loud at how ridiculous it sounds....


Agreed. I am surprised he would even bother it is just a time suck. How can one have the patience for a rational argument with some of these posters is beyond me. I know I have better things for to do then banging my head against a wall. Trying to have a rational debate from one end only to have 2 year old name calling from the other end is simply not worth it. Sometimes battles are not worth fighting.

I say not having the last word is the hardest thing to do, but you will be better for it.

B.


superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-10-2018 12:38
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
superchg2 wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:

JeffX or Notyper,

I regret that things have gotten to this point, but KaizenDo's writing in his above post @ 06/08/18 18:22 is unacceptable, reprehensible, and frankly pretty disgusting.

I am therefore requesting that KaizenDo be immediately banned from ToV for trolling.


I would not like for any of the TOV regulars to be banned.
If he makes you mad, just go take a walk.
And don't play in his neighborhood.
:)



80honda was also a regular here.

That didn't work out very well for anyone.



I'm pretty sure that KaizenDo's sometimes extreme politics are known to the mods, and have been commented upon previously.

However, I do not believe that he is 80honda reincarnated.

As I mentioned earlier, if you don't think that he plays nice, just stay out of his sandbox.

:)

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-10-2018 16:09
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Brutus wrote:
Agreed. I am surprised he would even bother it is just a time suck.


It is a time suck, but after long stretches of writing and/or reviewing code on a computer, communicating in actual written English rather than typing out C for a compiler (or worse, assembly code) helps reset my mind.

I suppose I could write a novel on the side instead, but I am interested in cars and not very interested in novels.

CarPhreakD
Profile for CarPhreakD
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-11-2018 11:28
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Brutus wrote:
3stageD15B wrote:
Atomiclightbulb typically addresses both rational and nonsensical, substantiated and unsubstantiated claims in a logical, systematic, patient, and evidence-based manner (even the mods on this forum concede this point). So it then makes perfect sense to ban him for this. Stunning commentary Rolled. Very keen and clever insight on your part (exasperated head shake). Perhaps you think he should be banned because you disagree with his arguments.

What I see is atomiclightbulb contributing a much more cautious and moderate, evidence-based critical-thinking approached toward Tesla and electric vehicles. He even concedes that it would be incredibly risky and unwise to invest in Tesla. If anything - it has been atomiclightbulb's evidence-based comments on this forum that have led me to view Tesla and Elon Musk's approach to building electric vehicles with much suspicion, skepticism, and cautiousness. It's ironic then that this forum could be so remarkably polarized when it comes to Tesla and battery-electric vehicles in general, that he is often attacked for - wait for it - being a Tesla SUPPORTER and fan-boy. It's hard not to read this last line without laughing out loud at how ridiculous it sounds....


Agreed. I am surprised he would even bother it is just a time suck. How can one have the patience for a rational argument with some of these posters is beyond me. I know I have better things for to do then banging my head against a wall. Trying to have a rational debate from one end only to have 2 year old name calling from the other end is simply not worth it. Sometimes battles are not worth fighting.

I say not having the last word is the hardest thing to do, but you will be better for it.

B.




My favorite argument here was about PC culture and the concern-trolling over grid girls being out of work.

owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-12-2018 00:12
Reply to This Message Attach Quote to Reply
atomiclightbulb wrote:
owequitit wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
owequitit wrote:
Musk is a tool and his legions of fanboys and religious zealots are
tools.

The difference though was that they didn't run around telling everyone how stupid and inferior they were while simultaneously falling flat on their face.

Like I have said repeatedly. It has less to do with the vision and more to do with the way he goes about it.


Ok, leaving aside prior disputes,

What specific instances are you referring to when you say that Elon Musk told everyone else (other industry players) that they were "stupid and inferior"?

With regards to the "falling flat on their face" part, I don't see this as a bad thing. Failing is a part of any business enterprise. Much of the technology industry today exists because people failed at something and learned a lot from those failures. This is the only way people learn and evolve. Soichiro Honda is often quoted as having said: "Success is 99% failure", although I don't know if he actually did say this.



It was pretty much linked in the post I said it in, and it has been implied in many of his statements in the past. When I care enough to go back around in circles with you and give you fodder for propaganda invention, I will compile a list and post it here.





I looked at your links, and I disagree with your assertion that Musk told everyone that others were "stupid and inferior".

The Forbes article you linked quotes Elon Musk as saying:

"“The car industry thinks they're really good at manufacturing and actually they are quite good at manufacturing. But they just don't realize just how much potential there is for improvement. It's way more than they think,”

This is not as simple as calling everyone "stupid and inferior".

A person or organization can be very intelligent and competent at their work, but they can simultaneously also not see a better way to do things, or they could be stuck in a particular mindset.

I am reminded of Research in Motion, the company most famous for BlackBerry phones.

BlackBerry made excellent Smart Phones in the mid-2000's, but they were stuck in the mindset that Smart Phones were primarily a device for work email. They didn't realize that the Smart Phone had the potential to do far more than secure email or messaging. Subsequently, they got wiped out by Apple and Google because mobile computing hardware improved to the point where a mobile device could handle rich web content, high def multimedia/gaming, and multi-touch gestures. Initially, BlackBerry's leadership couldn't think past the mental barrier that a phone had to have a physical keyboard.

It's entirely possible that people at Tesla have thought up of ways to improve manufacturing speed, that other companies haven't thought of or are unwilling to try.

While Tesla has had manufacturing problems for most of its history, I see this as a byproduct of their willingness to experiment in the pursuit of improvement.



Telling the world you are going to school Toyota on lean manufacturing, when your *only* current plant would have to improve by almost 700% just to match where Toyota was almost 2 decades ago when they LEFT the very same building is doing exactly what I say.

But of course, I also said there were other examples and I would provide them, but I haven't had time to.

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Motor Trend first impressions drive of Tesla Model 3    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-12-2018 18:38
Reply to This Message Attach Quote to Reply
owequitit wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
owequitit wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
owequitit wrote:
Musk is a tool and his legions of fanboys and religious zealots are
tools.

The difference though was that they didn't run around telling everyone how stupid and inferior they were while simultaneously falling flat on their face.

Like I have said repeatedly. It has less to do with the vision and more to do with the way he goes about it.


Ok, leaving aside prior disputes,

What specific instances are you referring to when you say that Elon Musk told everyone else (other industry players) that they were "stupid and inferior"?

With regards to the "falling flat on their face" part, I don't see this as a bad thing. Failing is a part of any business enterprise. Much of the technology industry today exists because people failed at something and learned a lot from those failures. This is the only way people learn and evolve. Soichiro Honda is often quoted as having said: "Success is 99% failure", although I don't know if he actually did say this.



It was pretty much linked in the post I said it in, and it has been implied in many of his statements in the past. When I care enough to go back around in circles with you and give you fodder for propaganda invention, I will compile a list and post it here.





I looked at your links, and I disagree with your assertion that Musk told everyone that others were "stupid and inferior".

The Forbes article you linked quotes Elon Musk as saying:

"“The car industry thinks they're really good at manufacturing and actually they are quite good at manufacturing. But they just don't realize just how much potential there is for improvement. It's way more than they think,”

This is not as simple as calling everyone "stupid and inferior".

A person or organization can be very intelligent and competent at their work, but they can simultaneously also not see a better way to do things, or they could be stuck in a particular mindset.

I am reminded of Research in Motion, the company most famous for BlackBerry phones.

BlackBerry made excellent Smart Phones in the mid-2000's, but they were stuck in the mindset that Smart Phones were primarily a device for work email. They didn't realize that the Smart Phone had the potential to do far more than secure email or messaging. Subsequently, they got wiped out by Apple and Google because mobile computing hardware improved to the point where a mobile device could handle rich web content, high def multimedia/gaming, and multi-touch gestures. Initially, BlackBerry's leadership couldn't think past the mental barrier that a phone had to have a physical keyboard.

It's entirely possible that people at Tesla have thought up of ways to improve manufacturing speed, that other companies haven't thought of or are unwilling to try.

While Tesla has had manufacturing problems for most of its history, I see this as a byproduct of their willingness to experiment in the pursuit of improvement.



Telling the world you are going to school Toyota on lean manufacturing, when your *only* current plant would have to improve by almost 700% just to match where Toyota was almost 2 decades ago when they LEFT the very same building is doing exactly what I say.

But of course, I also said there were other examples and I would provide them, but I haven't had time to.



Two points:

(1) Tesla is much closer to Toyota's #'s than you think. 700% improvement to match Toyota/GM is a wild exaggeration -- off by about an order of magnitude.

According to Ward's Automotive, the Fremont factory, then known as NUMMI, produced a high of 428,633 automobiles for GM and Toyota in 2006. Source: http://www.wardsauto.com/news-analysis/toyota-s-decision-abandon-nummi-closes-book-25-year-experiment.

That's approximately 8,243 cars/week for Toyota/GM.

Tesla, as discussed above,

Produces about 2,000 Model S and X cars per week.

Bloomberg's Model 3 Tracker, which has proven to be fairly accurate, estimates that Tesla is currently producing 2,677 Model 3s per week, and further projects 3,000-4,000/week in the next week or two.

If Tesla's current rate of production is 4,677 cars/week total, they need to boost unit output by 76% to match NUMMI's record.

If Bloomberg's forward looking analysis is correct, and Tesla gets to 4k/week of Model 3, total output rises to 6,000 cars/week, leaving Tesla a 37% gap with Toyota.

Neither of these is even close to 700%.


(2) Tesla's factory does a lot more than just body stamping, painting, and final assembly. Tesla builds many of its components in-house at Fremont.

For example: https://www.wired.com/story/teslas-secret-second-floor/

Tesla uses the 2nd floor of NUMMI to build battery packs, electronics, and motors.

Another example: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-08/tesla-model-3-photos-of-elon-musk-s-factory-in-fremont

Tesla has built seats in-house, since 2015, rather than sourcing them from a parts supplier. Model 3 seat construction appears highly automated (photo with yellow robots, about 80% through the article).

As far as I know, when the factory was run by NUMMI, the facility did not build components like motors or seats for the cars. So comparing Tesla's operation to Toyota's operation, is Apples and Oranges. Tesla is doing more manufacturing steps.


 
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