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  TOV News > Acura Set to Launch More Powerful, Technologically Advanced and Luxuriously Equipped 2016 Acura ILX > > Re: Sales Predictions

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iutodd
Profile for iutodd
Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-08-2014 21:05
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Given the relative lack of success for the current iteration of the ILX what do we think this "extensive" MMC will do for sales?

2012: 12,251 (on sale in May)
2013: 20,430
2014: 16,124 (YTD - down 14%)

Biggest month: 2485 in December 2012
Smallest month: 928 in June 2014

Average for all full months: 1626

10% increase in average: 1788 (21,546)
20% increase in average: 1951 (23,412)
30% increase in average: 2113 (25,356)

If sales increase by more than 30% then I will eat my hat - given the competition and the lack of market presence for the current model. The CLA is going to sell around 28,000 units this year (it's first full year on sale). The A3 has been averaging around 2300 units a month since it's full release in April (so basically 28,000 units a year). The Buick Verano has averaged something like 42,000 units sold a year since it's inception but it starts at $23K and tops out at around $30K so price wise it's basically in a different category from the CLA and A3 and most of the ILX - but it is in the mix for sure.

I think a 20% increase in monthly average coinciding with an increase in average transaction price (and eliminating the need for big money on the hood) would be a success for Acura. 23,000 ILX plus 50,000 TLX plus 45,000 RDX plus 60,000 MDX equals 178,000.

CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-08-2014 23:57
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The devil is in the details. It's about the overall impact of all the changes which appear to be plentiful. As well, the success of both the TLX and the ILX will be impacted by how successful Acura will be in delivering product with minimal glitches. Lots of new technology could lead to complications.

If the product is thoroughly engineered and the production ramps up smoothly, should the ILX be legitimately taken to another level by the upgrades, sales will improve dramatically. In addition to drawing away consumers from competing brands, a decent ILX could easily canabalize Accord and TLX sales.

On the other hand, if the sum of its parts doesn't result in a dramatically better overall feel and/or new technology proves unreliable, Acura could end up having a poor 2015.

Vinnyboss
Profile for Vinnyboss
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-09-2014 16:59
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Its going to come down for a test drive for me. At least I will test drive one now with that powertrain.
As a side note, I test drove the CLA and found the turbo lag really bad. Not very responsive.

iutodd
Profile for iutodd
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-10-2014 10:19
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I will be interested to see what the reactions are to the upgrades to the chassis, body, suspension and if it's quieter - it should be with more insulating material, thicker glass and the noise attenuating wheels.
JimmyEats
Profile for JimmyEats
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-10-2014 20:34
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The car is too small at any price.
qingcong
Profile for qingcong
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-12-2014 22:44
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JimmyEats wrote:
The car is too small at any price.



Too small for what?

owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-12-2014 23:22
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iutodd wrote:
Given the relative lack of success for the current iteration of the ILX what do we think this "extensive" MMC will do for sales?

2012: 12,251 (on sale in May)
2013: 20,430
2014: 16,124 (YTD - down 14%)

Biggest month: 2485 in December 2012
Smallest month: 928 in June 2014

Average for all full months: 1626

10% increase in average: 1788 (21,546)
20% increase in average: 1951 (23,412)
30% increase in average: 2113 (25,356)

If sales increase by more than 30% then I will eat my hat - given the competition and the lack of market presence for the current model. The CLA is going to sell around 28,000 units this year (it's first full year on sale). The A3 has been averaging around 2300 units a month since it's full release in April (so basically 28,000 units a year). The Buick Verano has averaged something like 42,000 units sold a year since it's inception but it starts at $23K and tops out at around $30K so price wise it's basically in a different category from the CLA and A3 and most of the ILX - but it is in the mix for sure.

I think a 20% increase in monthly average coinciding with an increase in average transaction price (and eliminating the need for big money on the hood) would be a success for Acura. 23,000 ILX plus 50,000 TLX plus 45,000 RDX plus 60,000 MDX equals 178,000.



I will be surprised if this car even meets the original sales projections. The problem now is that "ILX" is already seen as uncompetitive by most prospective buyers in this segment because of how far off the target the first one was. Also, while it is an extensive refresh, and I do expect sales to increase, it is having to wedge itself into a very narrow window between the TLX I4 and the Accord V6. In most cases, for not much more cash, I think the TLX will sway a lot of buyers away for its additional usability, the fact it is newer and has a little bit more prestige than the ILX (even though Acura's total "prestige" factor is basically non-existent at this point).

I would be surprised to see it hit the 15-20K original sales targets when the ILX was released. I also suspect we won't see this model more than 2 years, because the ILX should follow the new Civic by about a year, which would give it about 18-24 full months on the market.

CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-13-2014 13:11
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Who said anything about the next ILX being based on the Civic/Accord platform?

It's obvious that the ILX going forward will be more closely aligned with the TLX. Already the two models are set to share a powertrain and are being built at the same facility. Besides, if the ILX does well, there is no reason for Acura to rush a full re-design to market.

Seems to me the platform sharing in future is more likely to look like TLX/ILX in one corner and Civic/Accord in the other. That's as it should be. Put some distance between the Acura sedans and the Honda models.

The original sales projection was for 40,000 units a year, if I recall correctly. Quite doable if the ILX has been done right. Seems to me that the ILX, being among the least expensive premium compacts on the market today, is not a success if it fails to approach that 40,000-unit target. To figure out if the ILX is done right, we'll have to wait to check it out, likely in March. Until then . . .

PoweredbyHondaX
Profile for PoweredbyHondaX
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-14-2014 13:46
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Honda is moving to that modular platform like VW which has been costing them more cash then they thought as it was supposed to save money.

so the civic/accord chassis will share a lot. So it only makes sense the ilx will share it as well and tlx is up in the air? who knows next gen it might break off from the civic/accord/ilx trio into its own rwd biased version???

CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-14-2014 18:27
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Why align the ILX with the Civic/Accord if you're going to develop a separate platform for the TLX? It would be more cost effective to use the TLX platform for the ILX, too. It's especially advantageous to share a platform between the ILX/TLX in light of them being built at the same plant.
iutodd
Profile for iutodd
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-15-2014 15:50
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owequitit wrote:
I will be surprised if this car even meets the original sales projections. The problem now is that "ILX" is already seen as uncompetitive by most prospective buyers in this segment because of how far off the target the first one was. Also, while it is an extensive refresh, and I do expect sales to increase, it is having to wedge itself into a very narrow window between the TLX I4 and the Accord V6. In most cases, for not much more cash, I think the TLX will sway a lot of buyers away for its additional usability, the fact it is newer and has a little bit more prestige than the ILX (even though Acura's total "prestige" factor is basically non-existent at this point).

I would be surprised to see it hit the 15-20K original sales targets when the ILX was released. I also suspect we won't see this model more than 2 years, because the ILX should follow the new Civic by about a year, which would give it about 18-24 full months on the market.


Originally it was 35-40,000 units as the goal IIRC. I agree that they probably won't get to that point ever with this generation of vehicles. They would need almost 100% growth and that almost always doesn't happen unless it's an FMC (two recent examples would be the Kia Optima and the RDX).

The pricing window is definitely tight but I think part of Acura's strategy here is to give the buyer lots of good choices at specific price points. After the MMC, from $30-33K they'll have the ILX Premium, ILX Tech+, A-spec versions of both those trims, and the TLX base. That's four offerings that will each have advantages and disadvantages over the other. If they have fixed the ILX NVH and suspension issues then the ILX won't be giving up much to the TLX other than size.

Long term I have to believe that the plan is for the TLX I4 to go away and the ILX to take over the sub $35K market for Acura. That would be what I would do anyway - switch to the new Civic/Accord platform with the ILX, then have the TLX/RLX share a purpose-built longitudinal RWD/AWD platform.

CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-15-2014 18:16
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The ILX back seat isn't roomy enough and the trunk is too small for the ILX to effectively replace the FWD, four-cylinder TLX. Nothing but lost sales potential would come from killing off that TLX configuration.

Regarding the ILX MMC, it's not an MMC as we usually see it. MMCs tend to be mainly cosmetic with few changes that impact performance. The ILX is being tweaked cosmetically but given a major overhaul under the surface. Sure we don't yet know how transformative those changes are but I hardly think it valid to dismiss this as simply just another MMC.

owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-19-2014 21:35
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CarmB wrote:
Who said anything about the next ILX being based on the Civic/Accord platform?

It's obvious that the ILX going forward will be more closely aligned with the TLX. Already the two models are set to share a powertrain and are being built at the same facility. Besides, if the ILX does well, there is no reason for Acura to rush a full re-design to market.

Seems to me the platform sharing in future is more likely to look like TLX/ILX in one corner and Civic/Accord in the other. That's as it should be. Put some distance between the Acura sedans and the Honda models.

The original sales projection was for 40,000 units a year, if I recall correctly. Quite doable if the ILX has been done right. Seems to me that the ILX, being among the least expensive premium compacts on the market today, is not a success if it fails to approach that 40,000-unit target. To figure out if the ILX is done right, we'll have to wait to check it out, likely in March. Until then . . .



Really?

Civic based ILX... Honda has already said that the Accord and Civic will share a platform...hence the next ILX would be based on the Civic, which shares a platform with the Accord...

owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-19-2014 21:46
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iutodd wrote:
owequitit wrote:
I will be surprised if this car even meets the original sales projections. The problem now is that "ILX" is already seen as uncompetitive by most prospective buyers in this segment because of how far off the target the first one was. Also, while it is an extensive refresh, and I do expect sales to increase, it is having to wedge itself into a very narrow window between the TLX I4 and the Accord V6. In most cases, for not much more cash, I think the TLX will sway a lot of buyers away for its additional usability, the fact it is newer and has a little bit more prestige than the ILX (even though Acura's total "prestige" factor is basically non-existent at this point).

I would be surprised to see it hit the 15-20K original sales targets when the ILX was released. I also suspect we won't see this model more than 2 years, because the ILX should follow the new Civic by about a year, which would give it about 18-24 full months on the market.


Originally it was 35-40,000 units as the goal IIRC. I agree that they probably won't get to that point ever with this generation of vehicles. They would need almost 100% growth and that almost always doesn't happen unless it's an FMC (two recent examples would be the Kia Optima and the RDX).

The pricing window is definitely tight but I think part of Acura's strategy here is to give the buyer lots of good choices at specific price points. After the MMC, from $30-33K they'll have the ILX Premium, ILX Tech+, A-spec versions of both those trims, and the TLX base. That's four offerings that will each have advantages and disadvantages over the other. If they have fixed the ILX NVH and suspension issues then the ILX won't be giving up much to the TLX other than size.

Long term I have to believe that the plan is for the TLX I4 to go away and the ILX to take over the sub $35K market for Acura. That would be what I would do anyway - switch to the new Civic/Accord platform with the ILX, then have the TLX/RLX share a purpose-built longitudinal RWD/AWD platform.



It was 40K revised down to 20K after they realized that 40K had absolutely no bearing in reality. They have not even every met the 20K target except once, and on average are running well below their own revised target (keep in mind that was a 50% cut from original). I don't think it will consistently exceed the 20K unit a year goal and I would be flabbergasted if it made 24K a year (2K per month).

Again, it goes back into the fact that Honda is trying to wedge 3 cars into a $4K window. And frankly, the Accord is a more attractive prospect on features for price, and the TLX on luxury. I just see the ILX getting pinched out.

This is the fundamental flaw in the whole strategy. They have no pricing power or ability to separate product based on the fact the platforms simply don't allow it. So they have to price everything cheap, but they are trying to "align" their models with the Germans. The problem is that the unique platforms used by ALL of the Germans (with the exception of the A3) allows them to spread the features/pricing/performance out over a $70K range while Acura is left having to cram 2 of their 3 cars into a $3K window which spreads to about $4K if you include the top levels of the Accord. Like it or not, if I have a choice between an ILX with Civic Si performance, or a fully loaded Accord V6, the Accord is GOING to be a serious consideration, and for a lot of people, a likely buy. While they haven't quite found success, at least Toyota/Nissan were smart enough to figure out that they needed to be able to separate the product out from the mainstream plebian cars they sold. Look at the relative lack of success for the Maxima vs the Altima. It is effectively the Accord TLX scenario, except that Honda went to enough length to put the Acura name on it.

Just from where the ILX sits, I don't see it doing much better. It is already on its way out (it only has less than 50% of its shelf life remaining), it is only competitive with base models of competitors, and it only becomes as compelling choice as an Acura if you neglect a very small stretch to the TLX 4 cylinder, or the nearly identical price of a V6 Accord. That basically leaves people who want the Acura name, but can't afford the TLX (same badge whoring as what Audi is accused of), or it leaves the few people who want a small car with base level A3 performance. I just don't see that being a huge slice of pie. Let's be honest, its better than the CURRENT ILX, which can't even justify its price over a Civic, but I don't think it will be some miraculous recovery.

CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-20-2014 19:26
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Obviously, I can't say what Acura will do or even what it plans on doing. Myself, I would look to put some distance between the Acura sedans and the Honda models. With sufficient volume, certainly if Honda succeeded in taking Acura global, it really could be viable to develop an Acura sedan platform and a Honda sedan platform, each developed as distinct entities. Under that approach, the Civic/Accord platform would evolve independent of the ILX/TLX platform. Clearly if the Civic and Accord can share a platform, so, too, could the ILX and TLX. It might even be viable to go RWD with the Acura models, if that was deemed the way to go. In other ways, the compromises made to accommodate the Honda models would not apply to the Acura sedans, aimed at a different target.

If this were the intention, effective immediately, what is going on with the Civic could have no real bearing on the ILX. Instead, the next ILX could be based on a distinct Acura platform which would then be applied to the next TLX, and so on and so on. Already, we're about to have the ILX built at the same plant as the TLX, including a sharing of drivetrains. The drivetrain is an important piece and already that has been integrated. Not much of a leap to make a TLX-based ILX, instead of a Civic-based ILX.

It would certainly be in Acura's best interests to shut down the notion that the Civic should come to mind when considering the ILX. Change the narrative to how the ILX stacks up compared to the TLX and I would see that as progress.

Of course, Honda can do whatever it likes. Keeping it about how the ILX springs forth from the Civic, if that's what Honda wants, well, sure, that's a route available to the company. I see no upside to that approach, though.

As for the time frame for ILX V2, that depends on the reaction to the rather extensive reworking. If the automotive press is dismissive and the public disinterested in the revised model, the 2018 will be a brand new model. But if the press and public take to the revised ILX, there is no need to quickly bring a V2 to market. The revised ILX is getting a lot of the latest Honda tech, so unlike the current model, it could have a longish shelf life.



iutodd
Profile for iutodd
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-20-2014 22:28
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owequitit wrote:
Just from where the ILX sits, I don't see it doing much better. It is already on its way out (it only has less than 50% of its shelf life remaining), it is only competitive with base models of competitors, and it only becomes as compelling choice as an Acura if you neglect a very small stretch to the TLX 4 cylinder, or the nearly identical price of a V6 Accord. That basically leaves people who want the Acura name, but can't afford the TLX (same badge whoring as what Audi is accused of), or it leaves the few people who want a small car with base level A3 performance. I just don't see that being a huge slice of pie. Let's be honest, its better than the CURRENT ILX, which can't even justify its price over a Civic, but I don't think it will be some miraculous recovery.



Well we agree to disagree I guess. I think the new ILX will raise transaction prices and increase sales by 10-15% or so.

iutodd
Profile for iutodd
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-20-2014 22:48
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CarmB wrote:
Obviously, I can't say what Acura will do or even what it plans on doing. Myself, I would look to put some distance between the Acura sedans and the Honda models. With sufficient volume, certainly if Honda succeeded in taking Acura global, it really could be viable to develop an Acura sedan platform and a Honda sedan platform, each developed as distinct entities. Under that approach, the Civic/Accord platform would evolve independent of the ILX/TLX platform. Clearly if the Civic and Accord can share a platform, so, too, could the ILX and TLX. It might even be viable to go RWD with the Acura models, if that was deemed the way to go. In other ways, the compromises made to accommodate the Honda models would not apply to the Acura sedans, aimed at a different target.

If this were the intention, effective immediately, what is going on with the Civic could have no real bearing on the ILX. Instead, the next ILX could be based on a distinct Acura platform which would then be applied to the next TLX, and so on and so on. Already, we're about to have the ILX built at the same plant as the TLX, including a sharing of drivetrains. The drivetrain is an important piece and already that has been integrated. Not much of a leap to make a TLX-based ILX, instead of a Civic-based ILX.

It would certainly be in Acura's best interests to shut down the notion that the Civic should come to mind when considering the ILX. Change the narrative to how the ILX stacks up compared to the TLX and I would see that as progress.

Of course, Honda can do whatever it likes. Keeping it about how the ILX springs forth from the Civic, if that's what Honda wants, well, sure, that's a route available to the company. I see no upside to that approach, though.

As for the time frame for ILX V2, that depends on the reaction to the rather extensive reworking. If the automotive press is dismissive and the public disinterested in the revised model, the 2018 will be a brand new model. But if the press and public take to the revised ILX, there is no need to quickly bring a V2 to market. The revised ILX is getting a lot of the latest Honda tech, so unlike the current model, it could have a longish shelf life.



Boy. Well. First off: all of the ILX competition is on a FF/Transverse platform, the CLA, the A3, the upcoming 1 series.

Secondly: What the Civic does has EVERYTHING to do with what the ILX does. From spy shots, from rumors and everything else it seems that Honda is going all in with the next-gen Civic and, after the last generation, they HAVE to get it perfect. But it seems we'll have a Type-R, an Si, maybe a hatch, maybe a Prelude, definitely an i-MMD hybrid...again, from my seat it seems that Honda is going all in with the Civic and this has huge implications for the ILX.

The issue of sharing platforms is irrelevant because we don't know what Acura will do or even what is possible. But Acura will need an entry-level vehicle and all of it's competitors have small, FWD based vehicles as their entry level vehicles. The next-gen ILX should want to share a platform with the Civic and take everything up (thought even the excellent A3 is haunted by it's Golf/GTI sibling - it's also good and a lot cheaper) as that's basically all you can do (put SHAWD on it as well). And it needs to get here soon because it seems that the ILX is going to be upstaged by it's Honda sibling in a big way. "Changes and more changes" right?

If Acura is going to get a specific platform then it should be shared between the TLX and RLX IMO. I'd rather see a badass RWD/AWD TLX/RLX pair than a FWD/AWD ILX/TLX pair with the RLX doing something else. The RLX should be an out and out A6/5 series/GS/E-class competitor and not something entirely different IMO.

CarmB
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Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-21-2014 19:37
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If the 2016 ILX is trumped by the 2016 Civic, Honda has itself to blame.

It's not realistic to expect the Civic to be superior to the premium compacts the ILX is intended to compete against and so if the ILX can't keep up with the Civic, heck dramatically surpass it, clearly Acura has failed miserably at elevating the ILX to take on other automakers' premium compacts.

I don't know why you would want to encourage the notion that the ILX is an overpriced, premium Civic. Wouldn't a better narrative go something like the ILX is a less expensive, nimbler, sportier TLX?

From what I understand, the 2016 Civic will not share a platform with the 2016 ILX, nor a drivetrain, interior, exterior or be built at the same factory. It's good news that the biggest change will involve the ILX getting the TLX's drivetrain. Ideally the question of how the ILX measures up against the Civic will be replaced with how does the ILX measure up against the TLX. They share a powertrain so obviously that will be a big part of assessments going forward.

Build the ILX on a platform worthy of a quality TLX, not on one drawn from the Civic, no matter how capable. If using the same platform as the Civic causes a comparison to be made with the Civic, there's a simple solution - Don't.

If beginning with the arrival of the 2016s, the Civic and ILX part ways, to later restore strong ties would represent a step back. What's the upside?







iutodd
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Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-21-2014 21:08
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CarmB wrote:
If the 2016 ILX is trumped by the 2016 Civic, Honda has itself to blame.

It's not realistic to expect the Civic to be superior to the premium compacts the ILX is intended to compete against and so if the ILX can't keep up with the Civic, heck dramatically surpass it, clearly Acura has failed miserably at elevating the ILX to take on other automakers' premium compacts.

I don't know why you would want to encourage the notion that the ILX is an overpriced, premium Civic. Wouldn't a better narrative go something like the ILX is a less expensive, nimbler, sportier TLX?

From what I understand, the 2016 Civic will not share a platform with the 2016 ILX, nor a drivetrain, interior, exterior or be built at the same factory. It's good news that the biggest change will involve the ILX getting the TLX's drivetrain. Ideally the question of how the ILX measures up against the Civic will be replaced with how does the ILX measure up against the TLX. They share a powertrain so obviously that will be a big part of assessments going forward.

Build the ILX on a platform worthy of a quality TLX, not on one drawn from the Civic, no matter how capable. If using the same platform as the Civic causes a comparison to be made with the Civic, there's a simple solution - Don't.

If beginning with the arrival of the 2016s, the Civic and ILX part ways, to later restore strong ties would represent a step back. What's the upside?



Are you crazy? The Civic had better outshine the ILX - hell the Civic better outshine a lot of things with as much as Honda seems to be putting into it: Earth Dreams 1.8L (debut), 1.5t for the Si (debut), 2.0T for the Type-R (American Debut), i-MMD Hybrid, Prelude come back, Hatch, new platform...

The ILX, even with it's improvements (which I think are good BTW), is about to be overshadowed whether Acura likes it or not - the Si and the Type-R would seem to have the upper hand with their more advanced engines and almost certainly more power. The Acura will still have the upper hand in ride quality, NVH and luxury experience (probably) - but the Civic Si and Type-R will (probably) overshadow the ILX in basically every other way.

We don't know yet what Acura's future path will look like (because they haven't told us). But let's assume that SHAWD and eSHAWD are heavily involved. If the Civic is already offering a lot of things to buyers then Acura has to do something to differentiate itself. AWD and a Tier 1 level interior, NVH and more mature driving experience should be what they deliver I think - at least for the ILX. (See A3.)

An ILX 1.5T with 220 hp/200 lb-ft and SHAWD as the base entry model into Acura then a 2.0T ILX with 280/280 and SHAWD as the upgrade. Enthusiasts will still go with the Type-R over the base ILX for the same money, but the ILX, with the proper driving experience, will more than hold it's own with non-enthusiast buyers and the competition - which is the point.

Then the TLX and RLX can share a platform. Built specifically for AWD and able to accommodate the eSHAWD system, longitudinally mounted engines, some derived from the NSX engine maybe, and as close to 50/50 weight balance as possible.

Having the ILX and TLX share a platform is dumb because it cuts the rest of the lineup off just when the money really starts getting good and Acura really starts to play against the big boys (5 series, A6, CTS, GS, E Class). There is SERIOUS money to be made in that segment and if Acura can bring it with the next generation RLX (on an all-new longitudinal AWD platform) then that platform and technology HAS to come to the TLX. The ILX is competing against the CLA, upcoming 1 series, and A3...all of them FWD transverse FF platforms and it is fine sticking with that formula. The TLX and RLX should elevate each other by using the same platform and should be the vehicles that are completely separate from Honda.

CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-21-2014 22:35
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The Type R Civic will likely be an entirely different beast. Not comparable, not intended to be.
owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-25-2014 21:01
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iutodd wrote:
owequitit wrote:
Just from where the ILX sits, I don't see it doing much better. It is already on its way out (it only has less than 50% of its shelf life remaining), it is only competitive with base models of competitors, and it only becomes as compelling choice as an Acura if you neglect a very small stretch to the TLX 4 cylinder, or the nearly identical price of a V6 Accord. That basically leaves people who want the Acura name, but can't afford the TLX (same badge whoring as what Audi is accused of), or it leaves the few people who want a small car with base level A3 performance. I just don't see that being a huge slice of pie. Let's be honest, its better than the CURRENT ILX, which can't even justify its price over a Civic, but I don't think it will be some miraculous recovery.



Well we agree to disagree I guess. I think the new ILX will raise transaction prices and increase sales by 10-15% or so.



1) I didn't claim it wouldn't raise transaction prices. In fact, just selling for sticker would be a huge improvement in transaction prices (where they are currently getting $5-10K discounts, or about equivalent to a Civic EX-L in actual transaction price). That said, the car selling AT sticker doesn't change any portion of what I said.

2)A 10-15% increase in sales would still put it below 2K units per month, or 24K per year. In fact, it would put it right at, or just slightly below Acura's revised sales count of 20K per year, so in essence, you haven't disagreed, but actually supported my point.

CarmB
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Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-26-2014 11:42
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Let's not forget the Canadian market. We like our compacts. The most popular models in this country are compacts, led by the Civic. In November, even the Fit outsold the Accord and the Camry.

So in this market, you develop an excellent compact and sales will be there with a vengeance. Right now the Verano is the big seller in the premium compact class, due in part to a rather low starting price. But I like the revised ILX's chances of taking a lot of sales away from the Verano and with pulling away sales from the rather flawed CLA, assuming of course that Acura has gotten the ILX's feel right. While numbers in Canada, with a tenth of the US population, are significantly less, it's still thousands of additional sales to consider. My guess is that when Acura quotes projected sales, it doesn't separate out Canadian sales numbers. The ILX is only sold in Canada and the US right now (I assume not China) so it's unlikely it would be separated for projections. As of November, ILX sales in Canada have totalled 2,589 in 2014. With any sort of decent upgrade, sales approaching 5,000 units annually would be entirely doable.

That means one could be looking at tacking on another 5,000 sales to whatever the US numbers ended up being. If the car sold in the 26,000 range in the US and 5,000 here in Canada, that would mean overall sales of 31,000 units. If those sales were for cars not heavily discounted, as we are seeing right now, it would be a step forward for Acura, though far from mission accomplished.

The potential to do much better even than that really is there, I think, because there are just so many sales from so many directions that could be drawn into the mix. The ILX is a car that, theoretically, inhabits a rather bountiful sweet spot. Priced similarly to a midsize mainstream sedan but potentially offering performance, fit and finish, etc. more in line with entry luxury products. Get that right and the sales figures could really be rather substantial.

What the ILX isn't suited to is offering a compelling option for those on a tight budget or with the need for the maximum interior volume for the money. There are cheaper alternatives and there are roomier alternatives, beyond doubt. But if the car's size fits in with one's requirements and spending a little more fits, too, then the ILX, again done right, would offer a rather compelling alternative to a wide range of products, hailing from assorted categories. Mid-size upper-trim models, heavily optioned compacts, entry luxury models, etc.

This potential to make it on to a varied mix of short lists means there is plenty of room for sales growth, especially here in Canada.

When Acura initially talked about moving 40,000 units a year, that was far from unreasonable. That the ILX fell way below that number and even had to be heavily discounted in the bargain, really shows just how badly Acura bungled ILX development. Far too little for too much arriving too late.

While it's certainly too soon to make any meaningful predictions, I think to consider the ILX's potential market something in the 25,000 range is setting the bar far too low. A truly successful ILX ought to be more in line with the Verano which has surpassed 47,000 units moved (Canada/US combined) with a month to go.

If the Verano, with mediocre performance in all but one configuration (we're talking a non-turbo version delivering comparable acceleration to the 2.0L ILX), can approach 50,000 units, I like the potential for a much quicker ILX, which is what we're about to get. So much so that if the combined sales for North America for the revised model ends up around 30,000 units, that, in my view, is a fail. I'm sure Acura would offer those 30,000 units moved as proof that they had gotten it right but I think it would indicate the opposite.

owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-26-2014 13:00
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CarmB wrote:
Let's not forget the Canadian market. We like our compacts. The most popular models in this country are compacts, led by the Civic. In November, even the Fit outsold the Accord and the Camry.

So in this market, you develop an excellent compact and sales will be there with a vengeance. Right now the Verano is the big seller in the premium compact class, due in part to a rather low starting price. But I like the revised ILX's chances of taking a lot of sales away from the Verano and with pulling away sales from the rather flawed CLA, assuming of course that Acura has gotten the ILX's feel right. While numbers in Canada, with a tenth of the US population, are significantly less, it's still thousands of additional sales to consider. My guess is that when Acura quotes projected sales, it doesn't separate out Canadian sales numbers. The ILX is only sold in Canada and the US right now (I assume not China) so it's unlikely it would be separated for projections. As of November, ILX sales in Canada have totalled 2,589 in 2014. With any sort of decent upgrade, sales approaching 5,000 units annually would be entirely doable.

That means one could be looking at tacking on another 5,000 sales to whatever the US numbers ended up being. If the car sold in the 26,000 range in the US and 5,000 here in Canada, that would mean overall sales of 31,000 units. If those sales were for cars not heavily discounted, as we are seeing right now, it would be a step forward for Acura, though far from mission accomplished.

The potential to do much better even than that really is there, I think, because there are just so many sales from so many directions that could be drawn into the mix. The ILX is a car that, theoretically, inhabits a rather bountiful sweet spot. Priced similarly to a midsize mainstream sedan but potentially offering performance, fit and finish, etc. more in line with entry luxury products. Get that right and the sales figures could really be rather substantial.

What the ILX isn't suited to is offering a compelling option for those on a tight budget or with the need for the maximum interior volume for the money. There are cheaper alternatives and there are roomier alternatives, beyond doubt. But if the car's size fits in with one's requirements and spending a little more fits, too, then the ILX, again done right, would offer a rather compelling alternative to a wide range of products, hailing from assorted categories. Mid-size upper-trim models, heavily optioned compacts, entry luxury models, etc.

This potential to make it on to a varied mix of short lists means there is plenty of room for sales growth, especially here in Canada.

When Acura initially talked about moving 40,000 units a year, that was far from unreasonable. That the ILX fell way below that number and even had to be heavily discounted in the bargain, really shows just how badly Acura bungled ILX development. Far too little for too much arriving too late.

While it's certainly too soon to make any meaningful predictions, I think to consider the ILX's potential market something in the 25,000 range is setting the bar far too low. A truly successful ILX ought to be more in line with the Verano which has surpassed 47,000 units moved (Canada/US combined) with a month to go.

If the Verano, with mediocre performance in all but one configuration (we're talking a non-turbo version delivering comparable acceleration to the 2.0L ILX), can approach 50,000 units, I like the potential for a much quicker ILX, which is what we're about to get. So much so that if the combined sales for North America for the revised model ends up around 30,000 units, that, in my view, is a fail. I'm sure Acura would offer those 30,000 units moved as proof that they had gotten it right but I think it would indicate the opposite.



More spewed bullshit. Too long didn't read, because it is impossible for you to make a point anyway.

So far in 2016, Acura has sold 16,000 ILX's in the US Market. If you up that by 15-20% (which I don't agree will happen), you still don't make Acura's own revised 20K unit volume.

Just the facts of life, no matter how you try to spin shit Walter.

Canada's market is about 10% of the US's and is A) not only irrelevant in discussions of US sales volume, but B) doesn't make a saving dent in the failure that has been the ILX.

Just like the CSX didn't make a difference, neither will the ILX. Time to move along to the next dream world now...

CarmB
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Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-26-2014 15:15
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Canada might be 10 per cent as large a market as the U.S. based on population but because compacts are more popular here, potentially the relative sales represents more than 10 per cent. As well, it's rather shortsighted to imagine a model, long-term, only in the context of the U.S. market. Acura would like to go global and the ILX would be an important product from that perspective. It's a good size in so much as it's practical enough for many yet small enough to be nimble, enjoyable to drive.


owequitit
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Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-26-2014 18:36
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CarmB wrote:
Canada might be 10 per cent as large a market as the U.S. based on population but because compacts are more popular here, potentially the relative sales represents more than 10 per cent. As well, it's rather shortsighted to imagine a model, long-term, only in the context of the U.S. market. Acura would like to go global and the ILX would be an important product from that perspective. It's a good size in so much as it's practical enough for many yet small enough to be nimble, enjoyable to drive.




No Carm, your market's sales are 10% of the US's. Do we need to prove that with actual numbers too?

Besides, your point is 100% irrelevant. Acura claimed they would sell 40K ILX's per year IN THE US. They couldn't do it, so they revised it to 20K IN THE US. They couldn't do it either. They will be lucky if the MMC even gets ILX sales to the revised level they predicted IN THE US.

Canada is irrelevant to the discussion of sales in the US.

owequitit
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Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-26-2014 18:36
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CarmB wrote:
Canada might be 10 per cent as large a market as the U.S. based on population but because compacts are more popular here, potentially the relative sales represents more than 10 per cent. As well, it's rather shortsighted to imagine a model, long-term, only in the context of the U.S. market. Acura would like to go global and the ILX would be an important product from that perspective. It's a good size in so much as it's practical enough for many yet small enough to be nimble, enjoyable to drive.




No Carm, your market's sales are 10% of the US's. Do we need to prove that with actual numbers too?

Besides, your point is 100% irrelevant. Acura claimed they would sell 40K ILX's per year IN THE US. They couldn't do it, so they revised it to 20K IN THE US. They couldn't do it either. They will be lucky if the MMC even gets ILX sales to the revised level they predicted IN THE US.

Canada is irrelevant to the discussion of sales in the US.

CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-26-2014 19:41
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If memory serves, there never was any reference to where Acura was predicting projected sales would come from. Perhaps I'm wrong but my recollection is that there was a non-geographic-specific projection that the ILX would generate sales of 40,000 units in its first year. It was not, I believe, qualified as being the total US sales but total ILX units sold. Naturally, it's no surprise that one located in the U.S. would assume that meant the U.S. only because we all know that's to be expected.

Regarding the 10 per cent, that's referring to total sales across the board but I can assure you here in Canada a successful ILX would sell better, relatively speaking, than in the U.S. We prefer compacts. Many markets around the world feel the same way.

Canadians would love to embrace the ILX but they need something better to love than the current ILX. To put this in perspective, let's look at the difference between Verano sales in the U.S. vs. Canada. In the U.S. YTD the Verano has produced sales of 40,726. If the 10 per cent held, YTD here in Canada for the Verano ought to be 4,073 but instead it's 6,814. The ILX YTD sits at 2,589 in Canada vs. 16,124 stateside. That means that right now, Canadian ILX sales are about 14 per cent of overall ILX sales, because we favour compacts.

If the ILX has been correctly re-imagined, my prediction is that we would see a doubling of sales in Canada to about 6,000 units and a somewhat less dramatic leap stateside to around 30,000 units, on account of there would be more of an inclination towards the larger TLX. In other words, ballpark to 40,000 units in total sales is likely about right for an Acura gateway sedan done right.

The original 40,000 projection was fine. It's the car that has been the problem. A premium yet affordable compact can do sales of about 40,000 in the North American market. Nothing wrong with that target. You need the right car to get there, though. The question is, is the revised ILX that car.

owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-26-2014 20:56
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CarmB wrote:
If memory serves, there never was any reference to where Acura was predicting projected sales would come from. Perhaps I'm wrong but my recollection is that there was a non-geographic-specific projection that the ILX would generate sales of 40,000 units in its first year. It was not, I believe, qualified as being the total US sales but total ILX units sold. Naturally, it's no surprise that one located in the U.S. would assume that meant the U.S. only because we all know that's to be expected.

Regarding the 10 per cent, that's referring to total sales across the board but I can assure you here in Canada a successful ILX would sell better, relatively speaking, than in the U.S. We prefer compacts. Many markets around the world feel the same way.

Canadians would love to embrace the ILX but they need something better to love than the current ILX. To put this in perspective, let's look at the difference between Verano sales in the U.S. vs. Canada. In the U.S. YTD the Verano has produced sales of 40,726. If the 10 per cent held, YTD here in Canada for the Verano ought to be 4,073 but instead it's 6,814. The ILX YTD sits at 2,589 in Canada vs. 16,124 stateside. That means that right now, Canadian ILX sales are about 14 per cent of overall ILX sales, because we favour compacts.

If the ILX has been correctly re-imagined, my prediction is that we would see a doubling of sales in Canada to about 6,000 units and a somewhat less dramatic leap stateside to around 30,000 units, on account of there would be more of an inclination towards the larger TLX. In other words, ballpark to 40,000 units in total sales is likely about right for an Acura gateway sedan done right.

The original 40,000 projection was fine. It's the car that has been the problem. A premium yet affordable compact can do sales of about 40,000 in the North American market. Nothing wrong with that target. You need the right car to get there, though. The question is, is the revised ILX that car.



Carm, just stop spinning non-sense. You can't stand that you have been called out on every single instance of your bullshit, so you are running around making shit up to try and prove your point. What little credibility you used to have is now fully gone.

So really, just save yourself the effort and stop.

Honda's press release was that they planned to sell 40K cars in the US. It was a Honda America press release, and they couldn't meet that goal, so they dropped it to 20K. They can't meet that goal either, and Canada has no bearing on it.

You are simply trying to invent more bullshit to try and cover your tracks.

iutodd
Profile for iutodd
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-26-2014 21:02
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Acura sold 20,430 ILX last year so I don't know why you keep harping on the fact that they can't even meet that goal.
iutodd
Profile for iutodd
Re: Sales Predictions [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 12-26-2014 21:35
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owequitit wrote:
1) I didn't claim it wouldn't raise transaction prices. In fact, just selling for sticker would be a huge improvement in transaction prices (where they are currently getting $5-10K discounts, or about equivalent to a Civic EX-L in actual transaction price). That said, the car selling AT sticker doesn't change any portion of what I said.

2)A 10-15% increase in sales would still put it below 2K units per month, or 24K per year. In fact, it would put it right at, or just slightly below Acura's revised sales count of 20K per year, so in essence, you haven't disagreed, but actually supported my point.


Look at my first post for the math. When you look at the entire history of the ILX a 10-15% increase would put the ILX over 21,500 units per year.

And, looking at the entire brand 21,500 units of the ILX will be a solid contribution to the overall growth and sales of Acura. Not to mention selling for sticker will increase sales dollars and profits.

This year Acura will sell less than 60,000 cars (i.e. - not SUVs) between the RLX, ILX, TLX, TSX and TL - it's a bad year (in which they will still grow sales slightly). Next year, with just the ILX, TLX and RLX it's not that hard to figure that they will sell 70,000+ cars. 20,000 ILX, 48,000 TLX, 3,000 RLX (plus negligible TSX, TL sales) - I also think there is a good chance for the TLX number to be higher. Combine that with the 105-110K SUV sales and you have Acura selling 175-180,000 units with only five vehicles. Add in a small SUV below the RDX with 20-25,000 units and Acura is right back to the 200K unit mark...


 
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