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TOV Forums > General Talk > > Re: $5 Gas Coming...

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CB77
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$5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-28-2012 12:01
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CNN had another piece this morning on the likelihood of $5 gas by late summer...thanks largely to Wall Street speculators. This follows recent coverage on Fox Business News in which the former president of Shell oil agrees with this prediction. With gas at the highest it has ever been at this time of the year (even at the valley of the demand curve) it sure looks like another 2008 shaping up.

I guess all of Honda's hybrids and the much-hated 9G Civic will suddenly make sense if this happens. Although the economy will be thrown into such a tailspin, no one may be buying a car.

Waldo
Profile for Waldo
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-28-2012 12:34
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Ain't gonna happen.

If Obama wants a prayer chance of getting reelected, his administration will find a way to prevent this. $5 gas will have a devastating effect on the economy. Obama's veto of the Keystone pipeline will be used against him like a sledgehammer.

My more cynical side suggests that this may already be a campaign move. Suppose that all the predictions are for $5 gas, and it doesn't happen? Obama can then brag that his policies intervened.
CB77
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Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-28-2012 16:34
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Yeah, I hope you are right. Although it sounds like whatever oil ever comes through the Keystone pipeline is destined for China and India...not for us.

As far as your suggestion that Obama may try to use it as some kind of re-election trick...I don't think saying "Look at what almost happened and I stopped it" is very effective. Just as saying "the economy could have been a whole lot worse without me in charge" has not been effective.



TonyEX
Profile for TonyEX
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-29-2012 15:13
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CB77 wrote:

Yeah, I hope you are right. Although it sounds like whatever oil ever comes through the Keystone pipeline is destined for China and India...not for us.

As far as your suggestion that Obama may try to use it as some kind of re-election trick...I don't think saying "Look at what almost happened and I stopped it" is very effective. Just as saying "the economy could have been a whole lot worse without me in charge" has not been effective.






At the risk of getting political

Axlerod was on CNN this morning defending Obama by saying that the GOP has no new ideas.

This is exactly what Obama is going to run on because if he ran on his record he'd be booted out in a New York second (and I don't mean minute).

Gas at 5 bucks? Definitely could be. We're not drilling and we're importing while the US dollar has been devalued.

superchg
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Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-29-2012 15:45
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Ford seems to think the $5 gas will be a reality, but I wonder if they are getting a little carried away in their engine down sizing fervor.

The idea of a 4,550 fwd Explorer loaded down with 7 passengers and all their vacation gear being powered by a 2.0 ecoboost seems kind of strange. And if the turbo takes a powder, every body better get out and push!
:)
superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-29-2012 15:59
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Ford seems to think the $5 gas will be a reality, but I wonder if they are getting a little carried away in their engine down sizing fervor.

The idea of a 4,550 lb. fwd Explorer loaded down with 7 passengers and all their vacation gear being powered by a 2.0 ecoboost seems kind of strange. And if the turbo takes a powder, every body better get out and push!
:)
Honda1
Profile for Honda1
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-29-2012 16:03
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>> Gas at 5 bucks? Definitely could be. We're not drilling and we're importing while the US dollar has been devalued.

There is also a danger of conflict in the Middle East... then gas prices would be much higher.
CB77
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Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-29-2012 17:22
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Yes, I agree. If the tinderbox of a situation in Iran is ignited, we will see $8-$10 gas. And no amount of "drill baby drill" will counteract that, at least in the short-term, when it happens.

NorCalSales
Profile for NorCalSales
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-29-2012 17:30
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America as a whole is using a ton less gasoline than we did before and Cash for clunkers played a role noone bothers to recognize.
MarkR
Profile for MarkR
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-30-2012 00:39
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NorCalSales wrote:
America as a whole is using a ton less gasoline than we did before and Cash for clunkers played a role noone bothers to recognize.


As someone from europe who only visits the US 1-3times a year I would say there has been big changes.

Much much smaller cars and smaller engines than say 6-7-8years ago. Especially the bay area, it's really noticeable. Out in North Carolina woods you still see alot of F150s but there has definitely been a change in car size.
Mr. Taggart
Profile for Mr. Taggart
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-30-2012 12:52
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CB77 wrote:

Yes, I agree. If the tinderbox of a situation in Iran is ignited, we will see $8-$10 gas. And no amount of "drill baby drill" will counteract that, at least in the short-term, when it happens.





If this is the case then why is the US a net exporter of oil at this point in time? And drill baby drill would impact the price of gas because part of the current oil futures pricing is what is expected in the future.

If the current occupant of the Whitehouse were to announce that keystone was back on, the marcellus shale (spelling?) was open in every state, and all moratoriums on oil drilling in the Gulf were lifted gas would be under 1.50 within six months.
Hondu
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Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-30-2012 13:06
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Mr. Taggart wrote:
CB77 wrote:

Yes, I agree. If the tinderbox of a situation in Iran is ignited, we will see $8-$10 gas. And no amount of "drill baby drill" will counteract that, at least in the short-term, when it happens.





If this is the case then why is the US a net exporter of oil at this point in time? And drill baby drill would impact the price of gas because part of the current oil futures pricing is what is expected in the future.

If the current occupant of the Whitehouse were to announce that keystone was back on, the marcellus shale (spelling?) was open in every state, and all moratoriums on oil drilling in the Gulf were lifted gas would be under 1.50 within six months.



Net exporter? We use around 18 million barrels a day and produce around 9 million. Doesn't sound like net exporting to me.
sfenders
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Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-30-2012 13:07
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Mr. Taggart wrote:
If this is the case then why is the US a net exporter of oil at this point in time?


Anyone who believed even for a moment any of the recent misinformed media repetitions of the idea that the US is a net exporter of oil should adjust their level of credulity.

CB77
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Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-30-2012 13:10
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Mr. Taggart,

I don't believe your suggestion about opening all the Marcellus Shale areas would have much impact on oil prices...as those areas produce largely natural gas, not oil.

Mr. Taggart
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Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-30-2012 14:07
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sfenders wrote:
Mr. Taggart wrote:
If this is the case then why is the US a net exporter of oil at this point in time?


Anyone who believed even for a moment any of the recent misinformed media repetitions of the idea that the US is a net exporter of oil should adjust their level of credulity.




Sorry did not clarify REFINED OIL PRODUCTS, per the EIA. You want to explain why this is? - Give you a hint the crappy economy. And this number could be much larger if we had some more refineries. Wait the gov't squashed those ideas already.
Mr. Taggart
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Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-30-2012 14:10
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CB77 wrote:

Mr. Taggart,

I don't believe your suggestion about opening all the Marcellus Shale areas would have much impact on oil prices...as those areas produce largely natural gas, not oil.





Natural Gas and petroleum products can be substitutes for some uses. The substitution of cheaper natural gas would drive down the price of oil.
Double J
Profile for Double J
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-30-2012 14:46
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Also to note from what I know America imports oil from Canada then exports back gasoline. Gasoline is more expensive in Canada than America but Canada produces most of the oil. Most of the Keystone is already in place but they just want an expansion.
Hondu
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Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-30-2012 15:55
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Mr. Taggart wrote:
sfenders wrote:
Mr. Taggart wrote:
If this is the case then why is the US a net exporter of oil at this point in time?


Anyone who believed even for a moment any of the recent misinformed media repetitions of the idea that the US is a net exporter of oil should adjust their level of credulity.




Sorry did not clarify REFINED OIL PRODUCTS, per the EIA. You want to explain why this is? - Give you a hint the crappy economy. And this number could be much larger if we had some more refineries. Wait the gov't squashed those ideas already.



I would not call Natural gas a refined oil product. It is more a by-product of an oil well or extracted by a well by itself. When you see those flames at the top of oil wells, they are burning off the natural gas from the well. Plus I don't believe the US exports hardly any natural gas, since there is very little LNG capacity or export terminals that can handle it.
loveturtle
Profile for loveturtle
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-30-2012 16:15
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While increasing supply is a good way to bring prices down I always get the impression a lot of people seem to think if "we" drill "here" that oil doesn't go in to the global market but somehow magically goes directly to "our" pumps thus giving us cheaper gas than the rest of the world. Am I missing something?
P54
Profile for P54
Re: $5 Gas Coming...and it is a good thing.    (Score: 1, Normal) 02-23-2012 22:00
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notyper
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Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 02-24-2012 01:38
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Loveturtle,

What you're missing has to do with those very same speculators mentioned in the lead post. Announcing a massive increase in oil exploration, production and refining will dramatically affect the market because the market is priced based upon future expectations of asset or commodity value. If you want to sock it to speculators you kill their asset prices by creating an expectation of a massive increase in supply. I agree with the assertion that announcing massive increases in federal permits and such would crater oil futures overnight and they'd keep dropping as long as it didn't look like the Feds werent dragging their heels.

I think in this case Mr. Obama has his nads caught in a colossal vice grips of his own making. From one side he's pandered to the green zealots to the point that he is inextricably tangled with their gaia worship. From another angle he is besieged by his own promises that his policies would "necessarily" raise energy prices. Yet he is also faced with the prospect of losing an election on poor economic performance. And finally, even if he were to flip flop on oil production, he'd be viewed as helping make those evil oil companies richer.

Would that Mr. Obama had at least a thimbleful of business sense, both the US economy and his reelection bid would have much better outlooks.

SC
HondaJet
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Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 02-24-2012 02:19
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What thimble of business sense from Great Minds at Wall Street crashed the market in 2008. Even Greenspan and his minions didn't see it coming. Wall street has more power over the economy than any sitting president. This recent surge of gas prices are not from demand but from oil speculation.
If we are diligent enough to check the facts, we would seem smarter than most. And profit from it.
superchg
Profile for superchg
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 02-24-2012 04:28
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Not everybody hates the idea of $5 gas...

"Munich / Abu Dhabi. The BMW Group has opened the world’s largest showroom for BMW, MINI and Rolls-Royce Motor Cars and BMW motorcycles in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi Motors, the BMW Group’s long-standing importer for the region, has invested around AED 300 million (approx. 62 million euros) in the new 35,000-square-metre showroom over its three-year construction."

garoto628
Profile for garoto628
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 02-24-2012 09:55
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HondaJet wrote:

What thimble of business sense from Great Minds at Wall Street crashed the market in 2008. Even Greenspan and his minions didn't see it coming. Wall street has more power over the economy than any sitting president. This recent surge of gas prices are not from demand but from oil speculation.
If we are diligent enough to check the facts, we would seem smarter than most. And profit from it.



Apparently the speculators were very optimistic over the holidays, but somehow after January 1st, 2012, that optimism disappeared.
TonyEX
Profile for TonyEX
Re: $5 Gas Coming...and it is a good thing.    (Score: 1, Normal) 02-24-2012 12:13
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Bush high gas prices.... Halliburton, Oil Company conspiracy, Pelosi on the rampage, Obama feels a teacher's pain

Obama high gas prices.... Get a hybrid van (*), good for alternative fuel research (**), Pelosi says nothing.


(*) Don't exist, but if it did it'd cost 50K and someone out of work couldn't afford it.. but Obama's rich buddies could.

(**) Look at the Spanish Economy... alternative fuels don't work.. the ones that do (Natural Gas, Hydrogen) were killed by Obama to support GM's plug in hybrid.

HYPOCRISY.....
dootndo2
Profile for dootndo2
Re: $5 Gas Coming...and it is a good thing.    (Score: 1, Normal) 02-24-2012 12:33
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Gas prices are based on "futures". It really has no direct impact on current supply.

I would also submit that "Cash for Clunkers" actually was the means for us to pay debts to China with raw materials. They didn't want our lower priced dollars.

The worst part in this scenario is that people are not going to go out and buy a new car for $25000 to reduce their overall gas costs of $1500 year.

If Hybrids were the solution, why is it that every car on the road is a hybrid? It is because car companies can charge a premium for these models and bring down their overall average MPG for their lineup.

dootndo2
notyper
Profile for notyper
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 02-24-2012 12:33
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Ah, Hondajet, the market crashed because of bundled subprime loans and their derivatives. Do you know why there were so many subprime loans? Because the government encouraged them, subsidized them and bought them from the original lenders. No banker or investor in their right mind would have ever wrote even a fraction of the subprime loans that actually made it out onto the market if they didn't know, with absolutely certainty, that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac weren't going to backstop or buy those loans from them. The government basically put out a sign that said "Free Money". If the lenders had to play with their own money they wouldn't have even gotten started. Government distortions of the market - again.

And it wasn't like we didn't have warnings. That great bumbler, George W. Bush and his allies, was pushing for mortgage reform back in the early 2000s. But he was branded as a racist, enemy of the poor and all that sort of stuff by his opponents in Congress for attempting to deny minorities and the poor their access to the American dream of owning a home, even if they couldn't begin to afford it.

So, we reaped what we sowed. I saw it coming. I not only avoided getting slammed by it, I even profited from it. And generally, anyone who bought a home they could afford and didn't use it as an ATM machine to buy cars, boats, vacations, etc. on the expectation of continual appreciation, is doing ok as well.

But, getting back to the current issue, any president who believes, and has clearly stated that, energy prices should necessarily be higher for the good of the country is a complete business/financial idiot and is now getting exactly what he asked for, even if he didn't realize as much when he was shilling that line back in 2008. Just like when they tell us that converting to a green economy will create millions of jobs. They just forgot to mention that for every job created 2-3 more will be lost in the industries they kill in the process. These things are obvious, even common sensical, but no one in the media bothers to actually think anymore, they just republish press releases and talking points and then nod their heads up and down in unison.

SC

HondaJet wrote:

What thimble of business sense from Great Minds at Wall Street crashed the market in 2008. Even Greenspan and his minions didn't see it coming. Wall street has more power over the economy than any sitting president. This recent surge of gas prices are not from demand but from oil speculation.
If we are diligent enough to check the facts, we would seem smarter than most. And profit from it.


P54
Profile for P54
Re: $5 Gas Coming...and it is a good thing.    (Score: 1, Normal) 02-24-2012 16:13
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TonyE wrote:
Bush high gas prices.... Halliburton, Oil Company conspiracy, Pelosi on the rampage, Obama feels a teacher's pain

Obama high gas prices.... Get a hybrid van (*), good for alternative fuel research (**), Pelosi says nothing.


(*) Don't exist, but if it did it'd cost 50K and someone out of work couldn't afford it.. but Obama's rich buddies could.

(**) Look at the Spanish Economy... alternative fuels don't work.. the ones that do (Natural Gas, Hydrogen) were killed by Obama to support GM's plug in hybrid.

HYPOCRISY.....



Listen to what Obama says today and compare what he said on the video:

"It's the easiest thing in the world to make phony election-year promises about lower gas prices," Obama told a crowd at the University of Miami. "What's harder is to make a serious, sustained commitment to tackle a problem that may not be solved in one year or one term or even one decade."

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-gas-prices-20120224,0,3995476.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+latimes/news/nationworld/nation+(L.A.+Times+-+National+News)
ru4real
Profile for ru4real
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 02-24-2012 22:48
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Why do these forums read like a f***ing Fox News transcript? Can't we just stick to talking about cars for Pete's sake!
P54
Profile for P54
Re: $5 Gas Coming...    (Score: 1, Normal) 02-24-2012 23:03
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Cars happen to run on gasoline, gasoline gets more expensive and that influences the car buyer. If you don't like it maybe you can share some CNN transcript and clean up the language at same time, makes it more reader friendly. Deal? Gas prices have more to do with cars than cursing.
 
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